The situation in Greece will almost certainly drag on for another month. A caretaker government is about to take over ahead of June elections.
Greece may say it cannot make a debt payment, the next one due, before voters go to the polls.
It could become obvious well before the vote that enemies of austerity will be clear winners.
There is still no consensus about what happens if Greece leaves the eurozone. Some economists believe the impact will be benign. Debt held by banks and the IMF could be wiped out. It is too early to predict what that would mean, other than to say some large private financial firms may barely survive it, if pessimists are correct.
Greece’s down banking system took a blow which is a signal for what will continue to happen to the financial companies there. The ECB said it would not provide capital to four Greek banks it believes are insolvent. As Greeks continue to take money out of bank accounts, the trouble will only get worse.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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