Credit Suisse Raises Stock Market Expectations for 2013, Sets Upside for 2014
Credit Suisse is raising its expectations for the performance of the stock market. After a strong start to 2013, the firm also is calling for solid gains in 2014 as well. The firm’s Global Equity Strategy team has now raised its 2013 year-end S&P 500 target up to a new level of 1,730 versus the firm’s prior target of 1,640. Based upon the 1,631 close on Tuesday, that still implies upside of about 6% more between now and the end of this year for stocks.
Credit Suisse is also introducing a 2014 year-end price target of 1,900 for the S&P 500 Index. If its 2013 target is achieved and if the performance is actually as the firm expects in 2014, then that implies expectations of another gain in stocks of about 10% for 2014. If you combine the upside, that is roughly 15% from today’s prices over the next 19 months.
The call is to remain overweight equities. It was pointed out that the equity risk premium is 6.1%, but Credit Suisse believes that should be only 4.8%. The firm also said that U.S. company earnings revisions actually have turned positive for the first time since May and the firm now sees earnings growth of 5.1% rather than 2% in 2013. That expected earnings growth for 2014 is now put at 6.1%.
Lastly, the flow of funds remains positive. Credit Suisse believes that the economic momentum is troughing on many indicators, which normally is a positive for equities.