The bull market is now seven and a half years old since the V-bottom in March of 2009. Equity valuations are rather high at 18 times expected S&P 500 earnings. The Federal Reserve keeps signaling that it is itching to raise interest rates, and we keep hearing about dividend and safety-stock levels being inflated from asset rotation and a lack of other income opportunities. So what are investors supposed to do as we near an election and move closer to 2017?
24/7 Wall St. has noticed that investors have ignored all the warnings and that they keep finding different and new reasons to buy stocks. Investors will buy any quality stock if there is a discounting, or if the market goes on sale with a pullback. Now we have Credit Suisse out with an update to its Focus List.
In an effort to see what upside calls in Credit Suisse’s Outperform rated shares might be, we took a look at the firm’s top ideas that had implied upside of 30% to 50%. Investors and readers should keep in mind that traditional upside in Buy or Outperform ratings on Dow or S&P 500 stocks are closer to a range of 8% to 15% as things are right now.
The Credit Suisse U.S. Focus List is a compilation of 15 to 20 of the firm’s analyst picks that each has the highest conviction in what it called catalyst-driven ideas. The list reflects its analysts’ most favored and differentiated ideas. These are also deemed to be non-consensus based versus peers and competitors, and the selected names generally have upcoming catalysts in the next three to six months.
Some of these companies have seen problems of late. Still, most of these are household names. As a last reminder, analysts are not always right, and sometimes unseen outside forces wreck any good upside thesis. Here are five picks from the Credit Suisse Focus List with upside projections of 30% to 50%.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) remains the top technology stock among large caps covered by Kulbinder Garcha. His target is $150, which would be up 39% from the $107.66 share price listed in the Focus List review. Due to a ho-hum reception on the new iPhone and Apple Watch refreshes, Apple shares were last seen trading at $105.62.
Here is how analysts see the new iPhone and smartwatch announcements.
Credit Suisse showed that there are few upcoming catalysts that the rest of us did not think of in the months ahead. After the product refresh announcements, Credit Suisse thinks that next quarter’s guidance in October will provide a catalyst as it will provide a better indication of iPhone 7 expectations. Positives given for Apple’s $150 price target were Apple’s high retention rate, its complete ecosystem and Apple’s growing installed base.
Apple has a 52-week trading range of $89.47 to $123.82 and a consensus analyst price target of $123.66. Keep in mind that Apple’s market cap is $568 billion, so a 2% drop or gain is representative or more than $10 billion in overall market value.