There is a shift in market attitude coming, and you can feel it. High multiple momentum trades may be giving way to lower multiple value plays as the time for interest rate increases draws ever closer. With U.S. growth slowly but surely looking better, and an altered full employment number seemingly right around the corner, the path is clear. Shift to value and continue to lean to large caps.
In a new report, Jefferies has a plethora of new value calls, and like past months, some may look like growth stocks that have become value due to market re-rating. We scanned the list and found four top stocks that could be solid winners which are all rated By at Jefferies.
This company is the old financing arm of GM that was known before the Great Recession as GMAC. Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE: ALLY) has been rebuilt into a stronger and more solvent Internet-focused bank with no brick-and-mortar locations. Its customers do their banking solely through the bank’s website, its mobile application and automatic teller machines.
Jefferies feels that in comparison to peers, which there are few actually structured like Ally, the stock is very cheap. Trading at a low 8.73 times estimated 2016 earnings, and at a less than one times book value, the analysts feel that there is room to run. Most on Wall Street feel that the stock should trade more like 1.25 times book value. They feel that the bank is moving away from a dependence on GM, and into a more balanced operating structure, which is good for long-term strategy.
With the capital structure optimized and management having diversified, the originations platform ahead of expectations, the stock has tremendous value at current levels.
The Jefferies price target for the stock is $28. The Thomson/First Call consensus target is $27.76. Shares closed on Wednesday at $20.54.
Brookdale Senior Living
This is a top play on the aging demographic in the United States, and the stock has been hit very hard since June, down almost 40%. Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE: BKD) is the leading operator of senior living communities throughout the United States. It provides senior living solutions primarily within properties that are designed, purpose-built and operated to provide the highest-quality service, care and living accommodations for residents.
Currently Brookdale operates independent living, assisted living and dementia-care communities and continuing care retirement centers, with approximately 1,135 communities in 47 states and the ability to serve over 110,000 residents. Through its ancillary services program, the company also offers a range of outpatient therapy, home health, personalized living and hospice services.
The Jefferies team thinks that the real estate the company owns alone is worth $27 per share. They also feel that while there has been a 4% growth in construction, the impact on current existing facilities is much less than many appreciate, and the precipitous drop in the stock is unwarranted.
The Jefferies price target is $40, and the consensus target is $36.13. The stock closed trading on Wednesday at $23.03.
Carrizo Oil & Gas
This top energy stock for value buyers to consider was upgraded to a Buy recently at Jefferies. Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. (NASDAQ: CRZO) is a Houston-based energy company actively engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil and gas from resource plays located in the United States. Carrizo’s current operations are principally focused in proven, producing oil and gas plays primarily in the Eagle Ford Shale, the Utica Shale in Ohio, the Niobrara Formation in Colorado and the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania.
Many on Wall Street see the company as one of the best positioned due to the low break-even costs, solid operating scale and a very good balance sheet with ample liquidity. The analysts point out the stock has been weak on balance sheet and funding concerns, but that it has a minimal funding gap and salable non-core assets if needed.
The Jefferies price target is $53, and the consensus target is $50.38. Shares closed Wednesday at $39.63.
National Storage Affiliates
This stock had a recent initial public offering and may offer investors a chance to still get in on the ground floor. National Storage Affiliates Trust (NYSE: NSA) had to lower the price on the IPO from $16 to $13, and it is trading just above that level now. The company is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the ownership, operation and acquisition of self-storage properties located within the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas.
Jefferies points out that the company is trading at a big discount to the self-storage peers in the industry on a funds-from-operations basis. The firm feels that investors may not understand the company and that margin should start to narrow.
The Jefferies price target is $17, and the consensus target is lower at $15.67. The stock closed Wednesday at $15.
Plain and simple, these value ideas have solid potential upside, and the threat of a huge downside move is limited. Plus, Jefferies is looking for areas away from crowded momentum trades, where long-term growth investors can feel comfortable.