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Earnings Previews: Ballard Power, Blink and Rivian

The recent run-up in crude oil prices has boosted the stock by about 9.5% since the beginning of Putin’s war, less than a third of the boost enjoyed by rival ChargePoint. Shares hit a recent peak in mid-November and have dropped by 48% since then. A further threat to charging vendors like Blink is shaping up from startups that swap out batteries so drivers do not have to charge them.

Analysts remain mildly bullish on the stock. Only seven brokerages cover the company, and three rate the shares at Hold while four more have either a Buy or Strong Buy ratings. At a share price of around $24.30 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $39 is 60.5%. At the high target of $50, the potential upside is 106%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $6.2 million, down 3.1% sequentially but up by 153% year over year. On a GAAP basis, the estimated loss per share is $0.39 for the quarter, worse than the loss of $0.36 per share in the prior quarter and worse than the year-ago loss of $0.24 per share. For the 2021 fiscal year, analysts expect Blink to post a loss per share of $1.25, compared to last year’s loss of $0.59 per share, on revenue of $19.18 million, up 208%.

Blink is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 43.9 in 2021, 27.3 in 2023 and 14.5 in 2024. The stock’s 52-week range is $17.93 to $49.00. Blink does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 29.2%.

Rivian

Since its initial public offering in early November of last year, shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) soared to a gain of nearly 120% before pulling back to their current level of down about 55%. Rivian reports quarterly results after markets close Thursday.

Questions about the company’s ability to deliver its all-electric pickups have been underlined by last week’s now-withdrawn announcement of price increases of $10,000 to $20,000 for pre-ordered RT1 pickups. The announcement did not sit well with investors or customers, and founder and CEO RJ Scaringe backed off, saying, “Trust is hard to build and easy to break.”

Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 11 have given the stock a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the rest have  Hold ratings. At a share price of around $44.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $130.00 is nearly 190%. At the high target of $148.00, the upside potential is almost 230%.

Analysts expect Rivian to report fiscal fourth-quarter sales of $60.03 million and an adjusted loss per share of $1.97. For full fiscal 2021 ending in December, analysts are forecasting an adjusted loss per share of $8.73 on sales of $60.74 million.

For 2022, analysts expect Rivian’s enterprise value to sales multiple to be 14.3. For 2023, the multiple is forecast at 5.7. Rivian does not pay a dividend.

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