Earnings Previews: Algonquin Power, Joby Aviation, Nio

Joby Aviation

Since mid-August’s SPAC IPO, shares of Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) have fallen by about 66%. Late last month, analysts at J.P. Morgan Securities initiated coverage on several electric aircraft makers that are development stage companies and have yet to recognize any revenue. Santa Cruz, California-based Joby was given a Neutral rating and a December 2022 price target of $7.00.

Rival Archer Aviation also reports results after markets close Thursday and was J. P. Morgan’s top pick, with an Overweight rating and $7 price target. Joby’s stock is more liquid however and might be a safer choice for investors wanting some exposure to the coming electric flight revolution.

Joby’s growth-stock status has not yet attracted much coverage. Of five brokerages covering the firm, one rates the shares at Strong Buy, three rate the stock a Buy and one more has a Hold rating. At a share price of around $3.30, the upside potential based on a median price target of $10.00 is 203%. At the high price target of $15.00, the upside potential is about 355%.

Four analysts have forecast a first-quarter loss per share of $0.24 and a full year loss per share of $0.94. Joby posted a 2021 loss per share of $2.11. There is no revenue forecast until 2024, when sales of $14.35 million are projected.

Total shareholder return over the past 12 months is negative 66.1%.


Shares of China-based electric vehicle maker Nio Inc. (NYSE: NIO) have plunged by nearly 64% over the past 12 months. From a 52-week high posted in late June, the stock is down by 75%. The company delivered nearly 26,000 vehicles in the first quarter.

Nio also has been identified as one of more than 80 China-based companies that may be kicked off U.S. stock exchanges for failing to meet recently enacted federal accounting requirements. The company completed a secondary listing in Singapore on Tuesday. The company has until May 25 to dispute the federal listing that could get the stock delisted.

There are 25 analyst ratings on Nio’s stock, and 22 of those are Buy or Strong Buy ratings. At a share price of around $13.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $32.16 is about 138%. At the high target of $82.29, the upside potential is 510%.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2022, the consensus estimates call for revenue of $1.46 billion, down 6% sequentially and up 19.7% year over year. Nio is expected to post an adjusted loss per share of $0.17, flat sequentially, and worse than the year-ago loss of $0.04 per share. For the full year, the company is expected to report a per-share loss of $0.50, worse than the $0.30 loss last year, on sales of $9.37 billion, up about 65%.

Analysts estimate that Nio will trade at 59.8 times earnings in 2024. Until then, the company is not expected to post a profit. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 1.9 in 2022 and 1.1 in 2023. The stock’s 52-week range is $12.86 to $55.13, and the low was posted Tuesday. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 60.9%.

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