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Earnings Previews: Academy Sports, Coupa Software, GitLab, Hello

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The three major U.S. equity indexes closed higher Thursday. The Nasdaq added 2.7%, the S&P 500 rose by 1.8%, and the Dow Jones industrials put up a gain of 1.3%. Crude oil added about $3 a barrel following the weekly report on supply. Microsoft lowered earnings per share (EPS) guidance for the current quarter, and the stock shed 4% before markets opened, but ended up closing the day at its intraday high with a gain of about 0.8%.
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The May report on nonfarm payrolls rose by 390,000 jobs, leaping over the consensus estimate for a gain of 325,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%, and average hourly wages increased by 0.3% to $31.95. May’s report weighed on stocks at Friday’s opening bell.

After markets closed on Thursday, CrowdStrike reported better than expected EPS and revenue and issued upside guidance for the current quarter and for its 2023 fiscal year. Shares had added almost 8% in regular trading Thursday but sank by more than 3% after releasing the results and were trading down more than 5% Friday morning.

Lululemon also beat top-line and bottom-line estimates and issued upside guidance for both the current quarter and fiscal 2023. Shares traded down more than 2% early Friday.

Okta was the day’s headline story, adding nearly 11% in Thursday trading and then reporting results that beat on both the top and bottom lines. Upside guidance was modest, indicating to investors that the company is planning to focus on profitability rather than growth. Shares were up about 12% on last look.

Here is a look at four firms scheduled to release quarterly results either Monday or Tuesday.

Academy Sports

Sporting gear retailer Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (NASDAQ: ASO) has seen its share price dip by about 3.8% over the past 12 months. From its peak (and all-time high) in mid-November, the stock is down nearly 29%, after posting a new 52-week low last week. The company paid its first dividend in March, clearly hoping for investors to see the move as a commitment to profitability and shareholder returns. Analysts have cooperated by setting low expectations. Academy Sports reports results before markets open on Tuesday.

All 11 brokerages covering the stock have a Buy or Strong Buy rating At a recent share price of around $35.75, the upside potential based on a median price target of $45.00 is 25.9%. At the high price target of $70.00, the upside potential is about 95.8%.
Analysts expect Academy Sports to report first-quarter 2023 revenue of $1.45 billion, which would be down 20% sequentially and 8.2% lower year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.45, down 12.4% sequentially, and 25.4% lower year over year. For the full fiscal year ending next January, estimates call for EPS of $6.97, down 8.3%, and revenue of $6.68 billion, down 1.4%.

The stock trades at 5.1 times expected 2023 EPS, 4.7 times estimated 2024 earnings of $7.61 and 4.2 times estimated 2025 earnings of $8.50 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $25.10 to $51.08. Academy Sports pays a forward annual dividend of $0.30 (yield of 0.9%). Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 3.3%.
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Coupa Software

Shares of cloud-based business spending management provider Coupa Software Inc. (NASDAQ: COUP) have dropped by 68% over the past 12 months. The company’s name has been included in chatter about a potential acquisition, with Salesforce among the list of prospective buyers. Coupa’s $5.7 billion market cap could be attractive to the right buyer. The company reports quarterly results after markets close Monday.

Of 28 brokerages covering the company, 13 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and 13 have a Hold ratings. At a share price of around $74.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $88.00 is 17.4%. At the high price target of $140.00, the upside potential is 86.9%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast at $190.69 million, down 1.4% sequentially and about 14.2% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.05, down 72.4% sequentially and about 28.6% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year ending in January, Coupa is expected to post EPS of $0.19, down 77.4%, on sales of $841.62 million, up 16.0%.

The stock trades at 399.8 times expected 2023 EPS, 132.4 times estimated 2024 earnings of $0.57 and 74.5 times estimated 2025 earnings of $1.01 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $58.43 to $283.38. Coupa does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 68%.

GitLab

GitLab Inc. (NASDAQ: GTLB) provides a collaborative software development platform in the United States, Europe and Asia. The company came public in mid-October of 2021 and jumped its post-IPO high less than a month later. Since the IPO, the shares have dropped by about 59%. GitLab is practically a poster child for the mass exodus of investors from growth stocks that have essentially no near-term hope for profitability, in no small part due to the deep pockets of its chief rival, Microsoft’s GitHub. GitLab reports quarterly results after markets close Monday.
Of nine brokerages covering GitLab stock, eight have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. The holdout rates the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $44.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $64.50 is about 43.7%. At the high price target of $105.00, the upside potential is nearly 134%.
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First-quarter revenue is forecast at $78.24 million, up almost 2% sequentially. Analysts have a consensus estimate for an adjusted per-share loss of $0.265, compared to the prior quarter’s loss of $0.16 per share. For full fiscal 2023, ending in January, GitLab is expected to show an adjusted loss of $0.96 per share, compared to last year’s loss per share of $1.20. Revenue is forecast to rise 53.3% to $387.36 million.

GitLab is not expected to post a profit in 2023, 2024 or 2025. The company’s enterprise value to sales multiple for 2023 is 14.8. For 2024, the multiple is 10.6 and for 2025 the multiple is 7.9.

Hello

Beijing-based Hello Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MOMO) provides a mobile platform for social media and entertainment in China, including online dating services Momo and Tantan. Over the past 12 months, the stock has dropped nearly 53%. Since its pre-pandemic high in January of 2020, shares have dropped 84%. The share price depends heavily on user numbers and paying subscribers, both of which have declined recently. The company reports results first thing Tuesday morning.

Of 14 analysts covering the company, nine have a Hold rating and five rate the shares at Buy. At a share price of around $5.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $7.79 is about 32%. At the high price target of $20.64, the upside potential is 250%.


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