Earnings Previews: Abercrombie & Fitch, Coty, Dollar Tree, Peloton

Analysts are cautious. Of 26 brokerages covering Dollar Tree stock, 11 rate the shares at Hold and 13 have Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $167.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $185.00 is 10.5%. At the high price target of $210.00, the upside potential is 25.4%.

Second-quarter 2023 revenue is forecast at $6.8 billion, down 1.5% sequentially but up 7.3% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.62, down 31.8% sequentially and 31.7% higher year over year. For the full fiscal year, analysts expect Dollar Tree to post EPS of $8.18, up 41.1%, on sales of $28.11 billion, up 6.9%.

Dollar Tree stock trades at 20.5 times expected 2023 EPS, 14.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $9.34 and 16.0 times estimated 2025 earnings of $10.47 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $84.26 to $177.19. The company does not pay a dividend, and the total shareholder return for the past year is 63.1%.


Shares of fitness product maker Peloton Interactive Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON) have declined by nearly 90% over the past 12 months. Last week, the company said it would fire another 800 employees, raise prices and reduce its store count in North America. Peloton will begin outsourcing delivery and ship its exercise bicycles unassembled, leaving the customer to set up the machine. The announced changes have had a slightly negative effect on the stock price.

Analysts remain moderately bullish on the company. Of 32 brokerages covering the shares, 16 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating while another 14 rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $11.60, the upside potential based on a median price target of $20.00 is 72.4%. At the high target of $35.00, the upside potential is more than 200%.

For the company’s fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, which ended in June, analysts expect revenue to total $682.93 million, down 29.8% sequentially and by 27.1% year over year. Analysts also expect a loss per share of $0.44, better than the $0.98 loss per share in the prior quarter and worse than the $0.56 per-share loss in the year-ago quarter. For the full fiscal year, analysts estimate a loss per share of $4.18, compared to a loss of $0.05 per share last year, on revenue of $3.59 billion, down about 10.8%.

Peloton is not expected to post a profit in 2022, 2023 or 2024. Based on the current share price, the stock’s estimated 2022 and 2023 enterprise value to sales multiple is 1.3 times. That multiple drops to 1.1 in 2024. The stock’s 52-week range is $8.22 to $120.62, and Peloton does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return over the past year is negative 89.3%.

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