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Mizuho Analyst Revises Energy Sector Price Targets

Joey Ingelhart / E+ via Getty Images

For the year to date, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading down by about $1.00 a barrel. Over the past 12 months, however, WTI has dropped more than $30.00 a barrel. A year ago, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine had been going on for just three weeks. More than a year later, the invasion has slowed to a grind and pushed Russia’s budget deeper and deeper into deficit.

In a research note published Friday, Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar made a truckload of changes, mainly to price targets in the U.S. energy sector, but also raising his rating on one refiner.

Kumar raised his rating on Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) from Neutral to Buy and raised his price target on the stock from $133 to $160. The changes to Marathon’s rating and price target reflect the analyst’s positive outlook on the U.S. oil and gas sector after fourth-quarter earnings have been released. He also sees a higher refining margin in Marathon’s future and likes the refiner’s commitment to returning cash to investors through buybacks. He expects cash flows to increase as the company’s renewable fuels plant in Martinez, California.

Mizuho imposed an overall reduction of 5% in the energy sector’s net asset value due to lower capital efficiencies this year that are expected to be carried forward over a longer term. Despite that, Kumar raised his price targets on three exploration and production (E&P) firms, one refiner and one integrated supermajor:

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) price target raised from $200 to $206; maintained Neutral rating.

Civitas Resources Inc. (NYSE: CIVI) price target raised from $72 to $77; maintained Neutral rating.

Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) price target raised from $163 to $170; maintained Neutral rating.

PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) price target raised from $50 to $56; maintained Buy rating.

Permian Resources Corp. (NYSE: PR) price target raised from $12 to $13; maintained Neutral rating.

A larger number of energy firms had their price targets cut:

Antero Resources Corp. (NYSE: AR) price target lowered from $51 to $38; maintained Buy rating.

APA Corp. (NYSE: APA) price target lowered from $49 to $45; maintained Underperform rating.

California Resources Corp. (NYSE: CRC) price target lowered from $59 to $54; maintained Buy rating.

Chord Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: CHRD) price target lowered from $196 to $179; maintained Buy rating.

CNX Resources Corp. (NYSE: CNX) price target lowered from $18 to $16; maintained Underperform rating.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) price target lowered from $150 to $143; maintained Buy rating.

Crescent Energy Co. (NYSE: CRGY) price target lowered from $19 to $18; maintained Buy rating.

Delek US Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DK) price target lowered from $30 to $25; maintained Underperform rating.

Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN) price target lowered from $82 to $71; maintained Buy rating.

Diamondback Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) price target lowered from $195 to $177; maintained Buy rating.

EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) price target lowered from $160 to $150; maintained Neutral rating.

EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT) price target lowered from $62 to $48; maintained Buy rating.

Gulfport Energy Corp. (NYSE: GPOR) price target lowered from $95 to $90; maintained Neutral rating.

Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE: OVV) price target lowered from $70 to $66; maintained Buy rating.

PDC Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: PDC) price target lowered from $97 to $93; maintained Buy rating.

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) price target lowered from $121 to $120; maintained Neutral rating.

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) price target lowered from $293 to $265; maintained Buy rating.

Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) price target lowered from $32 to $29; maintained Neutral rating.

SM Energy Co. (NYSE: SM) price target lowered from $51 to $37; maintained Buy rating.

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