Trump and Biden Are Binding the Fed’s Hands

If the Fed announces no rate cuts this year and uncertainty for early 2025, the stock market’s reaction is unclear due to its heavy reliance on tech stocks. Powell is in a difficult position, unable to raise rates soon. The Fed is unlikely to make any moves until after the election to avoid influencing voters. Revisiting this discussion post-election will provide clearer insight.

Transcript :

What do you think happens if literally the Fed comes out and says, no cut this year, and we’re not absolutely sure about what we’ll do in the first part of 2025?

At this juncture, I don’t know. Because again, the stock market’s been run by a small cadre of tech stocks. So I’m not really sure how they’d react to that.

But you get to a point now where he’s, you know, Powell’s locked in.

He’s totally locked in and he certainly can’t raise in September.

You know, there’s a meeting in November after the election and one in December.

And I’m not so sure given what we’ve seen that any of the, I haven’t seen any of the Fed governors that were like, oh, we have to really start thinking about this because they’re not.

They know where the problems lie.

I don’t think we need to come back and talk about this until the day after the election, because the Fed is not going to put its finger at all on the election.

They are not going to do anything to push voters one way or the other.

So I don’t know. Let’s a week after the election or the next Fed meeting after the election, let’s come back together and talk about what happened.

Well, the dot plot says one.

And, you know, all you need is a little bit of commentary from one of these guys or women, Fed governors, and that one on the dot plot will go away.

Yeah. All right. Let’s get together on this in November.

Okay, let’s do it.