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Live Nasdaq Composite: Tech Rises on Chip Stock Tailwinds but Software Sinks
Live Coverage Has Ended

How Much Did Recession Risks Fall Today

Photo of Eric Bleeker
By Eric Bleeker Published

Live Blog Update #2 Published

← Back to Full Coverage: Nasdaq Composite Skyrockets 12% Wednesday: NVDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA), Meta (Nasdaq: META) Up More Than 10% Each

How much did the risk of a recession go down today? Prediction market Polymarket had 66% odds of a recession before Trump’s post on Truth Social, but those odds have now dropped to 49%.

That’s still a coin flip – which is above the 22% odds before Trump began focusing on tariffs in mid-February – but it does show why stocks jumped so significantly today.

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All Updates from Live Coverage

Another Reason NVIDIA and Semiconductors Ran Today

| Eric Bleeker
Live

Lost in all the news about tariffs today was that Google reiterated its guide for $75 billion in capital expenditures growth this year. Semiconductor stocks have been selling off partially on the belief that a recession would lead hyperscalers to scale back their ambitious spending plans.

Yet so far, none have blinked. Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) has given up some capacity, but that likely has more to do with its changing relationship with OpenAI. Other names to watch in the space would be whether Meta pulls back on its plans of spending $60 to $65 billion this year or Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) cuts back on expectations it will spend about $100 billion on capital expenditures.

Futures Little Changed

| Eric Bleeker
Live

Today saw stocks down big pre-market and ended with a 12% gain in the Nasdaq, so you’d figure stocks would be very volatile in after-hours trading.

Instead, after-hours action has been pretty muted. As of 6:22 p.m. ET, Nasdaq Futures are up just .03%.

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Photo of Eric Bleeker, CFA
About the Author Eric Bleeker, CFA →

Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.

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