How Much Will Your Social Security Benefits Be After Your 2026 Raise?

If you’re someone who relies heavily on Social Security benefits in retirement, then you’re probably eager to find out what your 2026 COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, will amount to.

Each year, Social Security benefits are eligible for an automatic COLA based on inflation. But the big question is, just how much will that COLA be?

We’re close to having an answer — at least in theory. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is supposed to make an official COLA announcement on October 15. But if the current government shutdown delays key inflation data, then the SSA may need to postpone that announcement.

Still, there’s a good chance the SSA will be sharing news of a COLA soon enough. And it’s important to know what that might mean for your Social Security checks in 2026.

How much money will you be looking at after 2026’s COLA?

While there’s no official word on a Social Security COLA just yet, the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League is projecting that next year’s COLA will be 2.7% based on the inflation data that’s been released so far. Meanwhile, as of August, the average Social Security retirement benefit was about $2,008.

If we apply a 2.7% COLA to $2,008, it brings us to $2,062. And that means that the typical senior on Social Security could be looking at a $54 raise in theory.

But these calculations do not tell the whole story. And it’s very possible that seniors will see much less of a raise in practice.

Medicare is the big wild card

Medicare Part A, which covers hospital care, is generally free for enrollees. But Part B, which covers outpatient care, is not free.

Medicare enrollees have to pay a monthly premium for Part B. For those on Social Security, that premium gets paid out of their monthly benefits.

We don’t know how much Medicare Part B will rise in 2026, as that information has not yet been released. However, if there’s a large increase, it could eat into 2026’s COLA, resulting in a smaller boost to seniors’ monthly checks.

For context, last year, the cost of Medicare Part B went up by $10.30. This year’s Part B increase is expected to be even larger. But even if it’s the same as last year, it would take the typical senior’s $54 raise down to $44.

That’s a very big deal for people who get most or all of their retirement income from Social Security. Seniors in that situation tend to need all the money they can get to stay afloat financially. So losing any portion of their COLA to a Medicare Part B increase can be a problem.

We’ll need to wait and see

We still need two key pieces of information to figure out how much Social Security benefits will rise in 2026 — an official COLA, which may be delayed by the government shutdown, and official word on Medicare costs. Until then, the best you can probably get is a rough estimate.

But if the numbers don’t seem favorable for your finances, consider it a wakeup call to make some changes, whether it’s going back to work part-time or reducing expenses. It’s a better idea than hoping for a COLA that magically results in a giant raise in the new year, since that does not seem to be on the table, regardless of what happens with Medicare.