Will the Government Shutdown Delay the 2026 Social Security COLA?

There’s a reason many seniors on Social Security had October 15 circled on their calendars. That was the date the Social Security Administration was supposed to make an official 2026 COLA announcement.

But as you’re probably aware, that date has come and gone, and the COLA announcement never came.

There’s a reason for that. The government shutdown has delayed the Social Security COLA announcement. But does that mean the COLA itself will be delayed? Or will seniors still get their much-needed raise on schedule in January?

Why the Social Security COLA announcement is late

You’re probably aware that we’re in the midst of a government shutdown. Part of that shutdown impacts the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which releases inflation data.

The Social Security Administration needs third-quarter data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to be able to determine a 2026 COLA. Since that data wasn’t released on October 15, a COLA could not be announced, either.

The good news, though, is that even though the big COLA announcement has been delayed, it doesn’t mean the COLA itself will be delayed. Seniors on Social Security can still expect their benefits to increase in January on schedule.

The Social Security Administration needs to know what next year’s COLA is by November 1 to ensure that benefits are given the right adjustment in the new year. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced that it will release CPI-W data on October 24. Even though that’s nine days later than when it was supposed to have that data ready, it’s still enough time to apply a COLA to 2026 benefits.

Don’t expect much out of 2026’s Social Security COLA

Even though you don’t have to worry about not getting your 2026 COLA in January, it’s important to recognize that your upcoming boost may not result in a lot more buying power. For one thing, current estimates are calling for a COLA in the ballpark of 2.7% to 2.8%. That may not be enough to keep pace with inflation if it continues to tick upward, which could happen as tariffs policies come to a head.

Also, Social Security COLAs have historically fallen behind inflation. Part of the reason is that the CPI-W is not a good measure of the costs seniors on Social Security face.

There’s also Medicare to think about. Seniors who are on Social Security and Medicare at the same time pay their Part B premiums directly out of their Social Security benefits. If the cost of Medicare Part B rises substantially in 2026, which is expected to be the case, then it could leave you with a pretty small COLA.

Once October 24 rolls around, we should know what Social Security COLA to expect. However, we may not have official word on Medicare’s standard monthly Part B premium at that point. Only once that information is released will you be able to determine just how far your Social Security raise will go in the new year.