Live: Will AMD Blow Out Q3 Earnings Tonight?

AMD (Nasdaq: AMD) shares are under pressure in after-hours trading. The good news is that AMD’s earnings were pretty good. The company beat EPS last quarter ($1.20 vs Wall Street’s estimate of $1.17) and forecasted strong growth next quarter. AMD’s outlook calls for $9.6 billion in Q4 sales at the midpoint, which is significantly ahead of Wall Street estimates of $9.2 billion coming into today’s earnings.

And yet, the bad news is that shares are down 5% after-hours. The reason for that has less to do with AMD’s earnings and more with a general tech sell-off. Shares of Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) are down another 3% after-hours after its shares plunged 8% today. Shares of NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) are down another 1.9% after-hours after falling 3.96% today.

If after-hours movements are any indication, it’s going to be another bloody day when the market opens tomorrow.

We went through AMD’s conference call and picked out three key storylines for investors. While the stock will likely open lower tomorrow, there were plenty of positive’s from AMD’s third quarter.

1.) AMD Is Optimistic About CPU Sales

“Many customers are now planning substantially larger CPU build-outs over the coming quarters to support increased demands from AI, serving as a powerful new catalyst for our server business.” — Lisa Su

The main star of the AI buildout is GPUs, or AI accelerators. Yet, AMD has spent years chipping away at Intel’s dominance in server CPU sales. So it should be heartening to investors that AMD is feeling very optimstic about CPU sell-through from the AI boom as well.

2.) AMD Is Forecasting ‘Tens of Billions’ From Their Data Center AI Business By 2027

NVIDIA shares dramatically outperformed AMD for much of 2025 as NVIDIA showed more momentum in data center sales. While the companies are the two leading GPU providers, investors increasingly weren’t convinced AMD could be anything more than a very distant second place (and potentially even third when accounting for custom accelerators) player in the AI processor race.

Yet, AMD’s deal with OpenAI provides a level of scale that has them forecasting the level of growth to get investors excited.

3.) AMD Says Customer Interest Has Picked Up After Their OpenAI Deal

Finally, AMD CEO Lisa Su took a question from UBS analyst Tim Acuri on whether AMD’s OpenAI deal has changed its position with customers. Lisa Su said interest and engagements have accelerated after the deal, and the company is aiming to several customers at comparable scale to OpenAI by 2027-2028.

Our updates will slow as we prepare for AMD’s earnings call.

As of 4:40 p.m. ET, AMD shares are down 3%.

That’s not the result of anything particularly negative in AMD’s earnings. Instead, the selling follows a broad sell-off of AI stocks on Tuesday.

AMD shares may still open in the green tomorrow depending on what the company says on their earnings call and where market sentiment shifts. If you’d like to listen to the company’s conference call, you can register to join here.

As a note, we will issue analysis after AMD’s call. If you’d like to receive that, simply leave this page open and new updates will load once the call has concluded. 

AMD shares are now tumbling after-hours, down 2.2%.

That’s not a big decline, but it is a change in reaction from where shares were trading initially after earnings. Here are some pros and cons to watch before the company hosts their conference call at 5 p.m. tonight.

Pros

• AMD soundly beat both Wall Street’s revenue and earnigns expectations lasts quarter. EPS of $1.20 came in above estimates of $1.17.
• Guidance for next quarter was also strong with a midpoint of $9.6 billion. That solidly cleared Wall Streeet expectations of about $9.2 billion.

Cons

• Today was a massive ‘risk sell-off’ on Wall Street with technology stocks declining while investors flocked to sectors like Healthcare, Financials, and Consumer Staples. It appears that flight to safety is continuing after hours as AMD’s earnings were solid, but investors are still selling after a major run-up into earnings.
• Amazon released their 13F tonight and revealed they’ve exited AMD, which could be pressuring shares.

The big news tonight is AMD’s (Nasdaq: AMD) earnings. However, some non-earnings new is breaking tonight. Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) filed their 13F and revealed they’ve exited their position in AMD.

AMD isn’t the only company that Amazon sold last quarter. They also sold their stake in quantum company IONQ.

Amazon’s current largest holdings include Astera Labs, Marvell, Owlet, and Rivian.

Looking through AMD’s earnings – a couple notes worth passing along:

• First of all, it’s expected, but the quarter included no GPU revenue from China. Like NVIDIA, AMD’s results have been depressed due to export restrictions on the country.
• Margin outlook is 54.5%, which is exactly inline with Wall Street expectations.

As we noted earlier, the reaction to AMD’s earnings would be driven by guidance.

Wall Street was expecting $9.196 billion next quarter and the company guided toward Q4 revenue of $9.6 billion.

That is a very solid beat on guidance and likely keeping the stock in the green after hours. 

We’ll continue analyzing their earnings.

Here’s the main numbers you need to know from AMD’s earnings. The big picture is the company beat Wall Street’s EPS and revenue figures.

AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Q3’25 Earnings Highlights:

• Adj. EPS: $1.20 (Est. $1.17) [✅]; UP +30% YoY
• Revenue: $9.2B  [✅]; UP +36% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 54%  [✅]; UP +0 bps YoY
• Net Income: $1.2B [✅]; UP +61% YoY
• Free Cash Flow: $1.5B; UP +208% YoY

Q4’25 Outlook:

• Revenue: $9.6B ±$300M (Est. N/A)
  • AMD expects revenue growth driven by continued demand for high-performance EPYC and Ryzen processors, as well as AI accelerators.
  • The guidance reflects a year-over-year growth of approximately 25% and sequential growth of approximately 4%.

Q3 Segment Performance:

• Data Center Revenue: $4.3B  [✅]; UP +22% YoY
• Client and Gaming Revenue: $4.0B (Est. N/A) [✅]; UP +73% YoY
• Embedded Revenue: $857M  [✅]; DOWN -8% YoY

Other Key Q3 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $2.2B  [✅]; UP +30% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $2.8B [✅]; UP +42% YoY
• R&D Expenses: $2.1B [✅]; UP +31% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 11.6% (vs. 3.5% YoY)
• Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short-term Investments: $7.2B
• Total Assets: $76.9B
• Total Debt: $3.2B

CEO Commentary:

• Dr. Lisa Su: “We delivered an outstanding quarter, with record revenue and profitability reflecting broad based demand for our high-performance EPYC and Ryzen processors and Instinct AI accelerators. Our record third quarter performance and strong fourth quarter guidance marks a clear step up in our growth trajectory as our expanding compute franchise and rapidly scaling data center AI business drive significant revenue and earnings growth.”

CFO Commentary:

• Jean Hu: “We delivered record quarterly revenue of $9.2 billion, up 36% year-over-year, and generated record free cash flow, reflecting the strength of our leadership portfolio and disciplined execution. Our continued investments in AI and high-performance computing are driving significant growth and position AMD to deliver long-term value creation.”

AMD beat on earnings (see last update), but shares are initially flat. We’ll keep analyzing the situation.

Here is what AMD delivered in Q3:

• Revenue: $9.25 billion
• EPS (Normalized): $1.20

Here is what Wall Street expected:

• Revenue: $8.75 billion
• EPS (Normalized): $1.17

We expect AMD earnings to hit the newswires at about 4:15 p.m. ET (in mere minutes).

The moment they do, we will begin updating this live blog.

The market has closed for the day and AMD (Nasdaq: AMD) shares were down 3.7%. That has little to do with any news surrounding AMD; today’s sell-off was concentrated around semiconductor stocks and stocks in the ‘AI trade.’

Palantir dropped 8% after initially jumping after its earnings release last night. NVIDIA shares were down 3.97%, and Broadcom closed down 2.93%.

Overall, the Nasdaq dropped 2.04%.

Today was clearly a totation out of risk as sectors like Financials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples all finished in the green while the Technology sector dropped 2.42%.

Once again: We expect AMD to report earnings at about 4:15 p.m. ET. The moment their earnings release we will begin updating this live blog with news and analysis. 

Here are three important reminders before AMD reports after the bell:

1.) We expect most of tonight‘s reaction from Wall Street won’t be whether or not AMD beats results last quarter. In general, companies in the AI infrastructure trade have seen strong earnings. We expect AMD to follow that trend. Instead, most the reaction will be what outlook the company provides and commentary on their earnings call.

2.) If you see a reaction to AMD’s earnings a little after four, that is likely not the company’s earnings. AMD typically releases their earnings about 15 minutes after the bell. We will be watching for earnings from AMD and will begin posting updates and analysis the moment their earnings hit, but we don’t expect that to be until around 4:15 p.m. ET.

3.) We believe this blog is the number one way to follow along with AMD’s earnings. We have a team of experts who have followed AI for years and will provide a detailed analysis why Wall Street is reacting the way it is. To follow this blog, new updates should post automatically (if they’re not, you can refresh to see if you’ve missed any), so we recommend simply leaving this page open so updates can load. Also, if you’re an investor who owns AMD because you want exposure to the most high-potential AI stocks, make sure to give our AI Investor Podcast a listen. In the podcast, I invest $500,000 of my own money in a portfolio of AI stocks. If you enjoy today’s blog, make sure to check it out!

Prediction market Polymarket has a market set up for AMD’s markets, and the current estimate is there’s a 90% chance AMD will beat earnings.

Many of the largest tech companies have had high odds of beating earnings this season. That hasn’t always led to beating earnigns, however, as Meta missed earnings due to one-time expenses while betting markets gave the company better than 90% odds of topping Wall Street’s expectations.

Other companies reporting tonight with prediction markets include:

• Rivian: 47% chance of beating earnings
• Toast: 52% chance of beating earnings
• Beyond Meat: 20% chance of beating earnings
• Pinterest: 59% chance of beating earnings

As you can see, investors are the most confident in AMD tonight.