Sunday Rally, Will It Last?

After a rather rough week in the markets to start November, the Trump Administration made an announcement Sunday morning that has sent bitcoin and company into the green once again. The Administration plans to make a $2,000 payment to American citizens (excluding the wealthy) funded by the U.S. tariff revenues. What form this comes in remains to be seen, as Treasury Secretary Bessent has commented that the payment form has not been determined yet, and could be seen in taxes possibly. Regardless, a stimulus check brings back memories of spring 2020, and BTC has had a strong showing so far, up over $105k at this time of writing. Funding rates are back over 10% annualized on perpetual contracts, while front month futures are barely in contango at the moment. The White House has made favorable announcements for markets on Sundays vs. the Friday afternoon tweets containing a new tariff or the like. A few more solid green days are needed in order for real momentum to come back to the markets.

Ethereum has had an even stronger performance on the day, trading up over 5% and is back over the $3,500 level. Even with ETH being one of the true blue chips in crypto, its volatility level is still considerably above that of BTC ( 73 vs 45 on the Deribit dvol measurement), so we see more extreme moves on the charts. We will see which DAT’s were able to capitalize on cheap ETH this past week, and if any other catalysts come out about the 10 year old project. Even with the Sunday rally, there is considerable volume flowing through the 28NOV2025 expiry put contracts on Deribit. Traders are adding more position protection going into the end of the month, especially when a rally can lead to some cheaper positions to be put on around the 25 delta put ($3,250 strike). Stay safe out there.