Fool Me Once

BTC is back at nearly $94k this afternoon, after a wave of liquidations have squeezed the leading cryptocurrency upwards. About $123m in short-sided liquidations have happened across centralized exchanges in the last 4 hours per Coinglass. On the eve of the last Fed rate decision of 2025, we are seeing some renewed excitement in markets from BTC bulls, but this story is becoming awfully familiar. Open interest on futures is up 3% in the last 24 hours, combined with funding rates hovering near the 11% range across both centralized and decentralized exchanges. Dated futures are at similar levels, with the front month of January 2026 in contango at a little over 11% annualized basis at this time of writing. This type of structure has been quite common the last few months, and outside of massive volatility events, very on par for what we have seen in 2025. The days of 40% annualized futures basis trades are long gone in crypto. 

The last few weeks have seen price action similar to today, with the range of $94k down to $80k taking hold of the market since mid November. While scalpers rejoice, the actual direction of BTC price remains to be seen. Overall, market sentiment leans towards the fearful end of the spectrum still, with a rating of 23 on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index from Coinglass. The language from the FOMC tomorrow will be crucial in influencing where price will go, as surprising dovish language could send BTC to $100k with haste. The expected “hawkish cut” will likely keep us in this current purgatory.