Before President Trump took office, he talked a lot about Social Security. In fact, he made numerous promises and proposals during his campaign that would affect retirement benefits. Those promises have not yet panned out, although the President did declare victory on one of them.
As we come upon the end of the first year of Trump’s presidency, it’s worth taking a look at whether two of his biggest proposals are likely to become law in 2026. Here’s what Trump’s two big plans were, along with some details on the likelihood of either of them ending up as the law of the land next year.
1. Eliminating federal tax on Social Security
President Trump has been fairly outspoken about eliminating taxes on certain kinds of income, including Social Security benefits. In fact, no tax on Social Security was a frequent talking point at Trump rallies.
Now, as his first year in office comes to a close, the President has actually largely declared victory on this pledge. On July 1, the White House released an official statement entitled “No Tax on Social Security is a Reality in the One Big Beautiful Bill.” The statement also read: “Under the One Big Beautiful Bill, the vast majority of senior citizens — 88% of all seniors who receive Social Security — will pay NO TAX on their Social Security benefits, according to a brand new analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers.”
While this assessment may be correct, the reality is that Trump did not deliver on his pledge to eliminate federal taxes on Social Security at all. In fact, no changes were made to the Social Security tax rules. The President did provide tax relief in the form of an extra $6,000 in deductions per eligible senior ( $12,000 for married couples). However, this extra deduction is temporary and lasts only until 2028, and it is for all eligible seniors regardless of whether they even collect Social Security.
Taxes on benefits are still the law, though, and the Trump Administration did not even raise the threshold at which those taxes kick in, even though it’s not indexed to inflation and hasn’t been adjusted for decades. While previously only a small percentage of seniors were taxed on benefits, now around 50% owe taxes, and more seniors will find themselves facing this obligation each year.
Unfortunately for those hoping these taxes would disappear, it is very unlikely that the President will even push for more legislation that addresses taxes on Social Security since the Trump Administration has declared that this issue has been fixed. So, the odds of a law being passed that fulfills this campaign promise in 2026 are extremely low — especially since many experts have expressed concern that eliminating these taxes would make Social Security’s already precarious financial situation even more unstable.
2. Using oil and gas revenues to shore up Social Security
Speaking of Social Security’s precarious finances, President Trump also floated an idea to address this issue. Specifically, the President pledged not to cut benefits, despite the fact that Social Security’s trust fund is slated to run dry in the coming years. Rather than raise taxes or change the full retirement age to provide increased financial stability for Social Security, the president suggested using oil and gas revenue to fund the program.
“You don’t have to touch Social Security,” Trump said to Sean Hannity in a town hall hosted by Fox News in December of 2023. “We have such incredible wealth under our feet, that that takes care of everything.”
Unfortunately, outside groups like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget have warned that this is not likely to be an effective fix, as funding Social Security with revenue from oil and gas leases would cover only around 4% of the shortfall in the benefits program. Further, even if all federal land were opened up to oil and gas drilling, this still would not provide enough money to fix Social Security.
Since there have been no concrete proposals yet that would tap into this source of revenue, and since it is very unlikely that more oil and gas drilling would get any bipartisan support at all, it is unlikely that this promise will pan out in 2026 either.
Ultimately, retirees are getting a tax break in the form of the extra deduction, and Social Security’s critical date when funds run out is a few years away. With President Trump’s popularity faltering, a narrow majority in the House and Senate, and the President’s focus on other issues like tariffs and immigration, sweeping changes of any sort to Social Security seem very unlikely in the upcoming year.
Whether these promises have the potential to become reality in the future beyond 2026 is going to largely depend on the outcome of upcoming elections in 2028, as well as whether the President chooses to focus on other domestic or foreign priorities in the coming years of his final term in office.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks