Stifel Financial, a 136-year-old investment bank, says Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could still fall to $38,000—a 43% drop from current levels near $65,000 and a full 70% crash from October’s $126,000 peak.
The firm’s chief equity strategist, Barry Bannister, built the case on 15 years of bear market data. He drew a trendline through every major Bitcoin crash since 2010—the 93% collapse in 2011, the 84% drop in 2015, the 83% slide in 2018, and the 76% decline in 2022—and noticed that each bottom landed higher than the last, forming an upward-sloping floor. If the pattern holds, that floor would reach $38,000 in the current cycle.
Here’s the trendline analysis, the macro headwinds supporting Stifel’s case, the bull arguments against it, and the price levels that will tell you which side is right.
The 15-Year Trendline Behind Stifel’s $38,000 Bitcoin Call
Stifel’s $38,000 target didn’t come from a model or a price multiple. Bannister’s team drew a straight line through the lowest point of every major Bitcoin crash since 2010 and extended it forward. The method is simple, but the pattern it reveals has held for 15 years.
The 2011 crash took Bitcoin down 93% to around $2. Four years later, the 2015 drop was 84%—but the BTC floor landed at $152, which was still 75 times higher than where the previous cycle bottomed. The 2018 crash stopped at $3,100, and 2022’s selloff found support near $15,500. Speculators got wiped out every time, yet the floor kept rising as long-term holders accumulated at progressively higher prices.
Bannister’s trendline connects those four lows. Extended to the current cycle, it lands around $38,000. With Bitcoin trading near $65,000 today, that implies another 43% downside if the pattern holds. Stifel isn’t predicting a Bitcoin collapse but pointing out that the current 70% decline would be consistent with every crash that came before it.
Why Bitcoin Is More Vulnerable This Time
Bitcoin was supposed to thrive when fiat weakened. A fixed supply of 21 million coins that central banks couldn’t inflate away. After 2008, that’s exactly what happened—quantitative easing flooded markets with dollars, and Bitcoin surged as investors looked for hard assets outside the traditional system.
Since 2025, the pattern has flipped. The Dollar Index dropped nearly 10% last year and slid another 1% in early 2026, yet Bitcoin fell alongside it instead of rallying. Bannister calls this the “Benjamin Button” problem—Bitcoin is aging backward, losing the qualities that once made it a hedge. Its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 now sits around 0.78, showing that when tech sells off, Bitcoin sells off with it.
The Fed cut rates modestly in December 2025, but the tone stayed hawkish, and Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair signals restrictive policy could stretch through 2027. Global M2 is also contracting, which means less speculative money chasing risk assets.
Moreover, the CLARITY Act stalled in January after Coinbase withdrew support over stablecoin yield provisions, leaving institutional investors without the regulatory clarity they were waiting for. And the capital that powered the 2024-2025 rally is walking out the door—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged $3.8 billion in outflows over five weeks, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone losing $2.1 billion.
Stifel isn’t saying Bitcoin will definitely hit $38,000—they’re saying the conditions that stopped previous crashes from going deeper aren’t showing up yet.
Why Bitcoin Bulls Think Stifel’s Prediction Is Wrong
Bearish predictions in crypto tend to overshoot. In 2018, some analysts warned Bitcoin could fall to $1,000, but it bottomed at $3,100. In 2022, calls for $10,000 circulated widely, but the floor held at $15,760. Stifel’s trendline has held for 15 years, but the loudest voices on Wall Street right now are betting it breaks this time, and are optimistic of a BTC recovery.
JPMorgan sees Bitcoin reaching $170,000 within 6 to 12 months. The bank’s framework compares Bitcoin to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis—how much risk capital each asset requires to hold. By that measure, analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou says Bitcoin is trading roughly $68,000 below fair value relative to gold. He calls the prediction a “mechanical exercise,” not a forecast, but it points up, not down.
Adding to the bullish call, Tom Lee at Fundstrat is targeting $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2026. He thinks the October 2025 crash wiped out excess leverage, clearing the way for a healthier rally. The April 2024 halving factors into his timing—historically, Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after supply cuts, which puts the window between April and October 2026. If the cycle repeats, the worst may already be behind us.
Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, also expects Bitcoin to blow past $200,000. His outlook centers on the Fed quietly printing money through a program called Reserve Management Purchases. Once investors recognize it as stealth quantitative easing, Hayes believes risk assets will rip higher. He sees the 2025 decline as a liquidity problem rather than a Bitcoin problem—and expects that to reverse.
Will Bitcoin Recover or Succumb to $38,000 Decline?
Stifel’s trendline points to $38,000, and JPMorgan’s gold comparison points to $170,000. Both forecasts are working from real data, and both can’t be right.
There are two key levels to watch. A sustained move above $58,000 to $60,000 would suggest buyers are stepping in before Stifel’s floor, which would weaken the $38K call. However, a breakdown through $54,000 opens the path toward $45,000, and from there, $38,000 could be on the cards.
Bitcoin is sitting around $65,000 right now, roughly in the middle of that range—closer to the resistance than the breakdown, but not by much. The next few months will decide if Stiffle’s prediction is right or if Bitcoin bounces back.
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