Live: Will Joby Aviation Shares Soar After Earnings Tonight?
Quick Read
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Joby Aviation (JOBY) shares dropped 25% year-to-date despite entering the final FAA certification phase for its eVTOL aircraft. The company reports its Q4 earnings tonight. We’ll be updating this live blog with news and analysis. Simply stay on this page for updates, which will appear automatically below.
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Joby burned $147M in Q3 but holds $1.55B in total capital following multiple recent fundraises.
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Toyota committed $500M additional to Joby and deployed 200 employees to implement Toyota Production System at Ohio facility.
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Live Updates
Earnings Scorecard: Joby Aviation Q4 2025
Earnings Scorecard: Joby Aviation Q4 2025
Overall Grade: B+ – Joby delivered on every metric that matters for a pre-revenue company: revenue beat, EPS beat, cash runway dramatically extended, and certification milestones accelerating. No traditional guidance was issued, but concrete operational commitments for 2026 replaced it.
| Category | Grade | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Performance | A | Reported $30.8M vs. $16.9M estimated, beating expectations by roughly 82%. |
| Earnings Beat/Miss | A | EPS beat the estimate, reflecting better cost discipline than expected. |
| Guidance Quality | B | No formal guidance, but first Dubai passenger flights targeted for 2026 and U.S. early operations provide tangible milestones. |
| Margin Trends | C | Gross profit remains deeply negative; improvement depends on commercialization timing. |
| Cash Flow | A | Cash position and post-quarter capital raises extend runway well beyond prior concerns. |
| Management Confidence | A | Record FAA Stage 4 progress and firm 2026 Dubai launch commitment signal strong execution conviction. |
Recap on the quarter
| KPI | Update | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| FAA Stage 4 Progress | +18 points | Certification acceleration |
| TIA Aircraft | Conforming aircraft ready | Near-final certification step |
| Production Plan | 4 aircraft/month by 2027 | Revenue scaling foundation |
| Cash Position | $1.4B + $1.2B post-Q | Runway secured |
| Dubai Launch | 2026 | First commercial revenue event |
The 3.8% move reflects incremental de-risking.
Joby is still pre-scale revenue, but the investment thesis has always hinged on three pillars:
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Certification execution
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Manufacturing ramp
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Capital sufficiency
This quarter strengthened all three.
If first passenger flights in Dubai materialize this year and TIA milestones continue progressing at the current pace, the narrative shifts from “timeline skepticism” to “commercial validation.”
Guidance Update / Forward Outlook
While no traditional revenue guide dominated the release, the forward markers were clear:
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First passengers in UAE expected in 2026
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Early U.S. operations through White House-backed eIPP program
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Ohio facility acquisition supports doubling production capacity
This sets 2026 up as the commercialization bridge year.
Here are the Need to Know Figures from Joby's Earnings
Here’s the main bullet points from Joby’s earnings. Keep in mind these generally matter more than earnings with the company still at the beginning of its revenue ramp.
- Record certification progress: Joby recorded a record 18 point increase in FAA progress on the fourth stage of the type certification process, underlining the FAA’s commitment to certifying eVTOL aircraft and the maturity of Joby’s design
- First FAA-conforming aircraft for TIA set to fly shortly:All of the aircraft required for Type Inspection Authorization are also now in production
- First passengers expected in 2026: Joby expects to carry its first passengers in Dubai this year, as well as completing early operations in the U.S. as part of the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program
- Plans to double production capacity in 2027:Joby signed an agreement to acquire a manufacturing facility in the Dayton, Ohio area, spanning more than 700,000 square feet supporting plans to double production to four aircraft per month in 2027
- Hybrid turbine-electric demonstrator completes first flight: Joby’s turbine electric, autonomous VTOL aircraft flew for the first time, just three months after the aircraft concept was announced, alongside a new partnership with L3Harris Technologies
- Further strengthened balance sheet: Joby had $1.4B in cash and short-term investments as of Q4 2025, plus an additional net $1.2B received in February 2026
Joby Earnings Just Released - Here are the Key Figures
Joby just reported earnings. Here are the headline figures:
- Revenue: $30.836 million
- EPS: -$.14
As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected.
- Revenue: $16.9 million
- EPS: -$.21
Shares are up 1% after earnings hit newswires.
Bull and Bear Arguments Headed Into Tonight
The Bull and Bear Case Heading Into Tonight
With Q4 FY2025 results expected after the close, here is where the two sides stand on JOBY.
Bull Case
- Cash runway: After a ~$576M equity raise, Joby ended Q3 with $978M in cash and investments, providing runway to reach certification.
- FAA milestone: Power-on testing of the first FAA-conforming aircraft has begun, marking entry into the final certification stage.
- Government tailwinds: White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program support adds regulatory momentum.
Bear Case
- Negligible revenue: $22M in quarterly revenue against a ~$9.2B market cap reflects how much hinges on forward-looking commercialization.
- Massive losses: Net loss of -$176M in operating income last quarter
- No commercialization timeline: Certification remains open-ended with no firm revenue start date.
- Insider selling: CEO JoeBen Bevirt disposed of roughly 1.4M shares in early February at prices as low as $9.91.
Joby Announces Partnership with Uber
Joby announced a partnership with Uber today that will take passengers to the airport.
You can read the full release here.
Joby Technicals Headed Into Earnings Are in Oversold Territory
With Joby’s Q4 2025 results due after the close tonight, the stock enters earnings under notable technical pressure. Shares are trading at $9.89, down 25% year-to-date and off 25.5% over the past month.
The 14-day RSI sits at 33.64, firmly in oversold territory after spending most of February below 36. That kind of sustained weakness typically requires a meaningful catalyst to reverse. On the volatility side, Bollinger Band width has compressed from 7.17 on February 17 to 4.20 as of February 24, signaling a potential breakout move is building.
Key levels to watch: the lower band at $8.42 represents near-term support, while the 20-day moving average at $10.52 and upper band at $12.62 mark resistance. No options implied move data is available. No analyst EPS consensus exists for Q4, leaving tonight’s report an open-ended catalyst.
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) reports its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results after the market close tonight, February 25, 2026, with a webcast beginning at 5:00 PM ET. Shares have had a rough start to 2026, falling nearly 25% year-to-date to around $9.96, even as the company has been putting up a string of genuinely impressive operational milestones. The disconnect between the headline news and the stock chart is exactly what makes tonight’s call worth watching closely.
What Wall Street Expects Tonight
Joby is close to a pre-revenue company. Wall Street expects $16.9 million in revenue and a $.21 loss tonight. Yet, what analysts are really tracking is cash burn, certification progress, and the company’s runway to commercialization.
In Q3, Joby burned through roughly $147 million in cash during the quarter. After a $576 million equity raise completed after Q3 closed, the company had approximately $1.55 billion in total available capital. Investors will want to know how much of that remains and whether the burn rate is accelerating as manufacturing scales up.
On the revenue side, Blade operations contributed $14 million in Q3 from just over a month of activity following the August acquisition. Q4 is historically a slow season for Blade, so that number will likely be lower. Any update on Agility Prime defense contract revenue or engineering services income will also be on the table.
Last Quarter Recap
Joby’s Q3 results, reported on November 5, 2025, beat the modest revenue consensus by 18.6%, posting $23 million against a $19,2 million estimate. The stock barely moved, gaining 2.3% in the hour after the release before giving that back the following day. Since the Q3 filing, JOBY has lost roughly 34% while the S&P 500 gained about 3%, a significant underperformance that reflects growing market skepticism about the timeline and capital intensity of the path to commercialization.
Key Things to Watch Tonight
- FAA Certification Timeline: Joby entered the Type Inspection Authorization phase in Q3, which is widely considered the final stage before full Type Certification. The company said FAA pilot “for credit” testing was expected to begin in 2026. Any update on that schedule, especially given the recent FAA publication of Special Federal Aviation Regulations for eVTOL operations, will move the stock.
- Cash Runway and Burn Rate: With a recent $600 million convertible note and additional stock offering completed in early 2026, Joby has shored up its balance sheet. But investors will scrutinize whether Q4 burn accelerated beyond the Q3 pace as manufacturing headcount grew and the Ohio facility came online.
- Toyota and Manufacturing Scale: Toyota closed a $250 million investment tranche and committed an additional $500 million, bringing its total stake to nearly $900 million. With nearly 200 Toyota employees on-site implementing the Toyota Production System, any update on production rate targets at the Ohio facility will be closely watched.
- eIPP and Commercial Timeline: The White House’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program was expected to select five markets in early 2026 for mid-year operations. Joby said it was in advanced conversations with state and local governments about participating. Whether Joby made the cut, and what revenue potential looks like, is the biggest commercial question of the night.
Tonight’s call is less about the numbers on the income statement and more about whether Joby’s certification clock is ticking on schedule. The company has done the hard work of raising capital and building partnerships. Now it needs to show the market that the finish line is getting closer, not further away.
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
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