Live: Will Joby Aviation Shares Soar After Earnings Tonight?

Earnings Scorecard: Joby Aviation Q4 2025

Overall Grade: B+ – Joby delivered on every metric that matters for a pre-revenue company: revenue beat, EPS beat, cash runway dramatically extended, and certification milestones accelerating. No traditional guidance was issued, but concrete operational commitments for 2026 replaced it.

The 3.8% move reflects incremental de-risking.

Joby is still pre-scale revenue, but the investment thesis has always hinged on three pillars:

1. Certification execution

2. Manufacturing ramp

3. Capital sufficiency

This quarter strengthened all three.

If first passenger flights in Dubai materialize this year and TIA milestones continue progressing at the current pace, the narrative shifts from “timeline skepticism” to “commercial validation.”

While no traditional revenue guide dominated the release, the forward markers were clear:

• First passengers in UAE expected in 2026

• Early U.S. operations through White House-backed eIPP program

• Ohio facility acquisition supports doubling production capacity

This sets 2026 up as the commercialization bridge year.

Here’s the main bullet points from Joby’s earnings. Keep in mind these generally matter more than earnings with the company still at the beginning of its revenue ramp.

• Record certification progress: Joby recorded a record 18 point increase in FAA progress on the fourth stage of the type certification process, underlining the FAA’s commitment to certifying eVTOL aircraft and the maturity of Joby’s design
• First FAA-conforming aircraft for TIA set to fly shortly:All of the aircraft required for Type Inspection Authorization are also now in production
• First passengers expected in 2026: Joby expects to carry its first passengers in Dubai this year, as well as completing early operations in the U.S. as part of the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program
• Plans to double production capacity in 2027:Joby signed an agreement to acquire a manufacturing facility in the Dayton, Ohio area, spanning more than 700,000 square feet supporting plans to double production to four aircraft per month in 2027
• Hybrid turbine-electric demonstrator completes first flight: Joby’s turbine electric, autonomous VTOL aircraft flew for the first time, just three months after the aircraft concept was announced, alongside a new partnership with L3Harris Technologies
• Further strengthened balance sheet: Joby had $1.4B in cash and short-term investments as of Q4 2025, plus an additional net $1.2B received in February 2026

Joby just reported earnings. Here are the headline figures:

• Revenue: $30.836 million
• EPS: -$.14

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected.

• Revenue: $16.9 million
• EPS: -$.21

Shares are up 1% after earnings hit newswires.

The Bull and Bear Case Heading Into Tonight

With Q4 FY2025 results expected after the close, here is where the two sides stand on JOBY.

Bull Case

• Cash runway: After a ~$576M equity raise, Joby ended Q3 with $978M in cash and investments, providing runway to reach certification.
• FAA milestone: Power-on testing of the first FAA-conforming aircraft has begun, marking entry into the final certification stage.
• Government tailwinds: White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program support adds regulatory momentum.

Bear Case

• Negligible revenue: $22M in quarterly revenue against a ~$9.2B market cap reflects how much hinges on forward-looking commercialization.
• Massive losses: Net loss of -$176M in operating income last quarter
• No commercialization timeline: Certification remains open-ended with no firm revenue start date.
• Insider selling: CEO JoeBen Bevirt disposed of roughly 1.4M shares in early February at prices as low as $9.91.

Joby announced a partnership with Uber today that will take passengers to the airport.

You can read the full release here.

With Joby’s Q4 2025 results due after the close tonight, the stock enters earnings under notable technical pressure. Shares are trading at $9.89, down 25% year-to-date and off 25.5% over the past month.

The 14-day RSI sits at 33.64, firmly in oversold territory after spending most of February below 36. That kind of sustained weakness typically requires a meaningful catalyst to reverse. On the volatility side, Bollinger Band width has compressed from 7.17 on February 17 to 4.20 as of February 24, signaling a potential breakout move is building.

Key levels to watch: the lower band at $8.42 represents near-term support, while the 20-day moving average at $10.52 and upper band at $12.62 mark resistance. No options implied move data is available. No analyst EPS consensus exists for Q4, leaving tonight’s report an open-ended catalyst.