Stock Market Live March 4, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) Flat as it Monitors Middle East Tension

Quick Read

The Strait is a critical transit route for global oil, with about 13 million barrels of oil per day moving through that region. By disrupting that flow, we run a risk of $100 oil.
President Trump told CNN, “We haven’t even started hitting them hard. The big wave hasn’t even happened. The big one is coming soon.”
While you can always invest in oil giants like Exxon and Chevron, you can diversify at a lower cost with exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
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This is Why Coinbase is up 14% Today

9 hours ago

After a severe pullback on Bitcoin weakness, Coinbase (COIN) is showing big signs of life again.

For one, Bitcoin appears to have finally bottomed out, now up $4,774 to $73,092. Two, President Trump is siding with cryptocurrency firms “in their high-stakes battle with U.S. banks over whether they can offer interest-like returns on stablecoins,” says CNBC.

In fact, as noted by Trump on his X page, “The Genius Act is being threatened and undermined by the Banks, and that is unacceptable – We are not going to allow it. The U.S. needs to get Market Structure done ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”

At issue is whether crypto exchanges such as Coinbase should be allowed to offer rewards programs that pay customers an annual percentage yield on stablecoins they hold. Coinbase, for example, offers a healthy annual yield on certain coins, which are often above bank deposit rates, which are close to nothing. The fear is that if yield-like payments could encourage banking customers to shift money away from traditional bank accounts.

“Banking groups have flooded lawmakers with letters and calls, warning that high-yield crypto tokens could drain deposits and threaten lenders. Executives from JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup have joined the push to regulate or limit crypto rewards to protect traditional banking, a WSJ report pointed out,” they added.

Should we see progress in the fight for interest-like returns, Coinbase could explode higher.

Target Pushing Higher on New Upgrade

11 hours ago

Just yesterday, shares of Target exploded higher on news it’s back on track to end its sales slump after another poor quarter.

In fact, Target CEO Michael Fiddelke said the company is “out of the gates strong this year,” as noted by CNBC. Also, while he noted that one month of growth “does not make a trend,” he said the February sales increase gives him “confidence” that the company is moving back to growth.

Today, TGT is up again in premarket after analysts at Telsey upgraded the retailer to an outperform rating. The firm said, “We are upgrading our rating on TGT shares to Outperform to reflect our confidence in the company’s strategy to drive growth by recapturing its Tarzhay merchandising magic, enhancing the customer experience, and leveraging technology and AI across operations, including stores and fulfillment to make more informed, faster decisions,” as quoted by CNBC.

Markets are mixed, as investors monitor war developments.

At the moment, the S&P 500 is up about 0.04%, or by two points. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down about 0.9%. The Dow is down about 0.02%, or by 12 points. The NASDAQ is up about 0.08%, or by 19 points. Oil is up slightly at $74.68. Gold prices are up $50 at $5,162.

And Bitcoin is back above $71,000, with a gain of $2,793 – especially with rising odds for the passage of the Clarity Act, which is aimed at legalizing stablecoins.

“We are in the headline-watching business at the moment, with competing stories shifting market sentiment an hourly basis yesterday,” added Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, as quoted by CNBC. “From a market perspective, the main issue is that there’s no sign of either side de-escalating, and if anything, it looks as though things are still ratcheting up.”

$100 Oil is Still a Strong Possibility

That’s because 1) war with Iran may last a while, 2) Oil could soar to $100 barrel with Strait of Hormuz traffic halted.

Remember, the Strait is a critical transit route for global oil, with about 13 million barrels of oil per day moving through that region. By disrupting that flow, we risk $100 oil.

If ships aren’t allowed through, oil would easily gush higher. In fact, “This could present a scenario three times the severity of the Arab oil embargo and Iranian revolution in the 1970s, and drive oil prices into the triple digits, while LNG prices retest the record highs of 2022,” added Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, as quoted by CNBC.

And three, President Trump told CNN, “We haven’t even started hitting them hard. The big wave hasn’t even happened. The big one is coming soon.”

3 Energy ETFs to Keep An Eye On

While you can always invest in oil giants like Exxon and Chevron, you can diversify at a lower cost with exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as:

SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE)

With an expense ratio of 0.09%, the XLE ETF provides exposure to companies in the oil, gas, and consumable fuel, energy equipment, and services industries, as noted by State Street SPDR. Since the start of the year, the ETF has run from about $44 to $56.52.

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)

With an expense ratio of 0.35%, the ETF provides exposure to the oil and gas exploration and production segment of the S&P TMI, which comprises the following sub-industries: Integrated Oil & Gas, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, and Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing, as noted by State Street SPDR. Since the start of the year, the ETF has run from $125 to $159.

iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC)

With an expense ratio of 0.40%, the iShares Global Energy ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of global equities in the energy sector. Some of its 50 holdings include Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corporation, BP PLC, Total SA, and EOG Resources. Since the start of the year, the ETF has run from $42 to $52.25.