Amazon Says in 10 Years AWS Could Be Bigger Than Its Entire Business Today

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) has delivered tremendous growth in its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division for years, powering the company’s profitability even as overall revenue expansion has moderated from the hyper-growth eras of the past. Yet that deceleration has sparked investor worries of a broader slowdown that could crimp Amazon’s long-term trajectory. As a result, Amazon shares are down approximately 8% year-to-date and have fallen roughly 18% from their 52-week high of $258.60 per share. 

Now, however, CEO Andy Jassy has delivered a strikingly optimistic counter-narrative: in roughly a decade, AWS alone — long Amazon’s primary profit engine — could generate annual revenue nearly matching everything the entire company produces today.

Slowing Growth Rates Fuel Investor Anxiety

For context, AWS posted $128.7 billion in revenue for full-year 2025, up 19% from the prior year but well below the 30%-plus rates seen in earlier boom periods. Amazon’s total revenue reached nearly $717 billion in 2025, with retail and advertising segments continuing to scale but facing margin pressures and competition. 

Analysts have questioned whether AWS’s maturation — now a $142 billion annualized run-rate business — signals peak cloud economics, especially amid intensifying AI infrastructure demands. That skepticism contributed to the stock’s retreat, as investors weighed near-term headwinds against the promise of transformative technologies.

A Bold AI-Driven Vision

According to a Reuters report on comments Jassy made during an internal all-hands meeting yesterday, the CEO dramatically upgraded his long-range outlook for AWS. He revealed that artificial intelligence is on track to double his previous projections, pushing AWS toward an annual revenue run rate of approximately $600 billion by 2036.

“I’ve been thinking for the last number of years that AWS, call it 10 years from now, could be about a $300 billion annual revenue, run rate business,” Jassy said. “I think what’s happening in AI that AWS has a chance to be at least double that.” He cited “very clear and significant demand signals” for AI workloads, positioning Amazon’s cloud platform to capture an outsized share of the exploding market for compute, storage, and specialized infrastructure.

At $600 billion, AWS would approach the scale of Amazon’s entire $717 billion enterprise today, effectively implying the cloud business could eclipse the combined retail, advertising, and logistics operations that currently dominate top-line figures. This vision underscores AWS’s evolution from a profitable sidecar to a potential standalone behemoth, fueled by proprietary chips like Trainium, global data-center expansion, and enterprise AI adoption.

Tackling Massive Capex Investments and ROI Doubts

Wall Street’s primary concern centers on Amazon’s aggressive spending plans. The company has guided for roughly $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 — up sharply from $131 billion in 2025 — largely earmarked for AI servers, chips, power infrastructure, and networking gear to support AWS acceleration.

Jassy directly addressed the scrutiny, noting the sharp share-price reaction to the capex spending. “We’re not just spending the $200 billion of capex because we’re hoping AI is going to be big,” he explained. Instead, Amazon is front-loading infrastructure to meet committed demand rather than speculating on returns — an approach Jassy argues is essential to maintaining leadership against rivals like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Azure and Google Cloud.

Key Takeaway

Hyperscalers’ surging capex has become a flashpoint for analysts and investors, who fear the hundreds of billions poured into AI data centers may not deliver commensurate ROI amid uncertain utilization rates and potential margin compression from depreciation. Amazon’s updated AWS forecast, while electrifying, also signals that meaningful revenue acceleration won’t materialize immediately. 

The infrastructure build-out precedes monetization by years, meaning the payoff remains several years distant. Consequently, the very headwinds — elevated spending, compressed free cash flow, and tempered near-term growth — that have pressured Amazon shares are likely to persist. Significant upside momentum to push the stock decisively higher may remain on hold until investors gain clearer visibility into realized returns from today’s massive investments. 

For patient shareholders betting on Amazon’s AI dominance, the long game looks compelling; for those seeking quick catalysts, patience will be required.