SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI | SOFI Price Prediction) shares were up about 2% in early Monday trading, climbing above the $17 level. The move comes after a bruising stretch that has left SOFI stock down 35% year to date.
A short-seller broadside from Muddy Waters Research, published March 17, has kept the stock under pressure and the investor debate at a boil. Today’s modest bounce reflects a tug-of-war between bears leaning on those accounting allegations and bulls who see a fundamentally stronger company than the bears are willing to admit.
The broader market is providing some lift. The S&P 500 is up by around 2% on the day, driven by optimism around diplomatic developments, which is creating a general tailwind for beaten-down names like SOFI.
What Muddy Waters Said and Why It Still Stings
Muddy Waters called SoFi Technologies a “financial engineering treadmill” and alleged “at least $312 million of unrecorded debt,” claiming the company uses “GE Capital-style loan marks and Enron-esque off-balance-sheet structures” to dress up borrowings as revenue. The report also alleged a higher personal loan charge-off rate than the company reports and argued that shareholders face constant dilution.
SoFi Technologies fired back the same day, calling the report “inaccurate and misleading” and said it “demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of its financials and business.” The company also announced it would explore legal action against Muddy Waters.
The stock dropped as much as 6.5% in the immediate aftermath of the report. For bears, the allegations land on fertile ground given that SOFI stock was already down sharply from its 52-week high of $32.73.
The Bull Case: Noto Is Buying His Own Stock
The most compelling counter-narrative comes directly from inside the company. SoFi Technologies CEO Anthony Noto bought 28,900 shares at a weighted average price of about $17 on March 17, the same day the Muddy Waters report dropped.
That followed a purchase of 56,000 shares at about $18 on March 2. Retail investors on Reddit have noticed, with the top driving post in r/stocks during this period titled “Anthony Noto bought another $1.5 million of SoFi shares in the past 15 days.”
Executives rarely buy open-market shares in the middle of a short-seller attack unless they genuinely believe the price is wrong. Noto’s purchases suggest the leadership team believes the current price does not reflect the company’s actual value.
The underlying business supports that confidence. SoFi Technologies posted its first-ever billion-dollar quarter in Q4 2025, with revenue of $1.025 billion and EPS of $0.13 against a $0.11 estimate. Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $3.613 billion, up 38% year over year.
Growth is showing up in the customer base too. SoFi Technologies’ member count hit 13.7 million, up 35% year over year, with a record 1.03 million members added in Q4 alone. That top-of-funnel expansion positions the lending and financial services businesses for continued scaling.
Bears Still Have Ammunition
The short-seller report’s charge-off allegations deserve scrutiny. SoFi Technologies’ personal loan annualized charge-off rate was 2.8% in Q4 2025, up from 2.6% sequentially, and the company attributed the uptick to portfolio seasoning.
That explanation may be legitimate, but it gives bears a data point to keep pressing. Credit card charge-off rates were still 6.55% in Q3 2025, a level that could become a problem if SoFi Technologies’ portfolio continues to season without improvement.
Valuation is another sticking point. At the current price, SOFI trades at a forward P/E of 32x on 2026 guidance of $0.60 adjusted EPS. That is not cheap for a fintech stock navigating a volatile macro environment.
Wall Street’s average analyst target for SoFi Technologies stock sits at about $26. Meanwhile, the consensus rating is still “Hold,” with 10 analysts at Hold, 2 at Sell, and 2 at Strong Sell out of 22 covering the stock. For those looking at beaten-down tech names with analyst upside targets, SoFi Technologies fits the profile, though the accounting cloud complicates the picture.
What Comes Next
The next hard data point arrives on April 28, when SoFi Technologies reports Q1 2026 earnings. The company has guided for approximately $1.04 billion in adjusted net revenue and $0.12 adjusted EPS for Q1. A clean quarter with transparent disclosures would go a long way toward defusing the Muddy Waters narrative.
Until then, SOFI remains one of the more contested fintech names in the market. Credit metrics and balance sheet disclosures will be the primary focus when results arrive. In the meantime, keep an eye on the $17 level if you’re trading SoFi Technologies stock.
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