This Will be PepsiCo’s Stock Price Next Year

PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP | PEP Price Prediction) trades at $156.20 as of writing and our price target for the stock is $177.14, implying upside of 13.41% over the next 12 months. With a 90% confidence level, PepsiCo’s defensive characteristics, dividend consistency, and international momentum support the 12-month price target of $177.14.

Recent Performance

PepsiCo shares are up 10.41% year-to-date through April 10, 2026, recovering from a 52-week low of $122.83. Over the trailing 12 months, the stock has gained 13.32%. The most recent one-month performance shows a decline of 1.93% from $160.15, pulling back from its 52-week high of $169.96.

Fourth quarter results delivered a solid beat. Revenue came in at $29.34 billion, beating the $24.01 billion consensus estimate by a wide margin. EPS of $2.26 edged past the $2.24 estimate. Net income surged 66.78% year-over-year, and operating income rose 15.6%. Full-year FY2025 EPS landed at $8.14, against a consensus estimate of $8.11.

Bull Case: International Momentum and Guidance

International segments delivered strong Q4 results: EMEA revenue grew 12% with operating profit surging 72%, and LatAm Foods expanded 11%. Management’s FY2026 guidance calls for organic revenue growth of 2-4% and core constant currency EPS growth of 4-6%, with a ~1 percentage point FX tailwind. Record productivity savings and the poppi acquisition integration add further momentum.

Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers maintains a Buy rating with a $169 price target, citing the portfolio’s ability to generate earnings through volatility. The bull case scenario puts PEP at $184.95 by April 2027 if organic growth trends toward the high end of guidance and North American volumes stabilize.

Key Risks

Tariff-driven commodity cost inflation poses the primary risk. PBNA faced an 11-percentage-point cost headwind from tariffs in Q4, with pressure expected to persist in FY2026. Organic volume declines in PFNA and PBNA remain concerning, with PFNA down 3% organically in Q3. Consumer affordability pressures continue to weigh on North American snack volumes.

The bear case projects PEP at $157.16 by April 2027. FY2025 GAAP operating income declined 19.57% and net income fell 13.97%, driven almost entirely by a $1.99 billion non-cash Rockstar brand impairment. Core EPS grew 11% in constant currency in Q4.

Price Target Rationale

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $177.14 reflects genuine earnings momentum. PepsiCo has raised its dividend for 54 consecutive years, with the annualized payout now at $5.92 per share effective June 2026. Total projected shareholder returns for FY2026 stand at $8.9 billion.

The stock trades at a trailing multiple of approximately 26x and a forward multiple of approximately 18x, reasonable for a mega-cap defensive compounder.

Our price target of $177.14 assumes North American organic volumes stabilize in Q1 FY2026 and productivity savings flow through as guided. The bear case risk centers on tariff-driven commodity cost acceleration and consumer trade-down intensifying beyond pricing power.

These projections assume PepsiCo executes on brand restaging, international expansion, and productivity initiatives. Upside comes from faster North American volume recovery and poppi integration gains. Downside centers on sustained tariff headwinds and prolonged consumer trade-down.