This Will Be McDonald’s Stock Price Next Year

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD | MCD Price Prediction) trades at $311.53 as of writing. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for McDonald’s is $342, implying 9.7% upside over the next 12 months. The 24/7 Wall St. recommendation is buy, with a 90% confidence level.

McDonald’s executed a V-shaped recovery through 2025, its loyalty platform is scaling rapidly, and valuation remains reasonable for a franchise-dominant, cash-generating business of this quality.

Our price target of $342 reflects a business that regained footing after a difficult start to 2025. With comp sales accelerating into year-end, a loyalty program approaching $37 billion in annual sales, and management guiding for continued restaurant expansion in 2026, the risk-reward tilts constructively for patient investors.

A Volatile Year Ends With Momentum

McDonald’s 2025 was a tale of two halves. The stock fell as low as $278.64 before recovering sharply. Over the past year, shares are essentially flat, up just 0.28%. Year-to-date in 2026, the stock gained 0.77%, though a pullback over the past month gave back 6.24% from March highs.

The fundamental story improved dramatically as the year progressed. Q1 2025 saw U.S. comparable sales fall 3.6% and revenue decline 3.45% year-over-year.

By Q4, McDonald’s reversed course. Revenue rose 9.7% year-over-year to $7 billion, beating estimates by 2.85%. EPS of $3.12 topped the $3.04 consensus. Global comparable sales surged 5.7%, with U.S. comps jumping 6.8%. For the full year, McDonald’s delivered $26.88 billion in revenue and EPS of $12.20, beating annual estimates by 0.49%.

The Bull Case

McDonald’s rests on three pillars. First, the loyalty program drives growth. With nearly 210 million 90-day active users across 70 markets and annual sales to members approaching $37 billion, this platform drives repeat visits and data-informed marketing at scale few competitors match. Active users grew 19% in Q4 2025.

Second, restaurant expansion accelerates. McDonald’s plans to open approximately 2,600 restaurants globally in 2026, with roughly 2,100 net additions. Management expects net unit expansion to contribute approximately 2.5% to systemwide sales growth.

Third, consumer spending on food services remains robust. BEA data shows food services spending reached $1,523.2 billion in February 2026, the highest level in the dataset.

Of the 37 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy, with a consensus target of $344.79. In our bull scenario, McDonald’s reaches $359.21 by April 2027.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear case centers on margin pressure and balance sheet concerns. McDonald’s carries a shareholders’ equity deficit of $1.791 billion, with total liabilities of $61.30 billion exceeding total assets of $59.51 billion. Interest expense is guided to rise another 4% to 6% in 2026. Capital expenditures are rising to $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion in 2026, up from $3.365 billion in 2025.

The negative equity position reflects McDonald’s asset-light franchise model, a structural feature of its franchise-dominant business. The company generated $10.551 billion in operating cash flow in 2025 and free cash flow of $7.186 billion, covering dividends and buybacks.

Restructuring charges from the “Accelerating the Organization” initiative continue through 2027. Tariff exposure and foreign currency translation remain variables. In our bear scenario, McDonald’s trades at $314.63 in 12 months.

The Bottom Line

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $342 represents compelling risk-reward for a defensive compounder with genuine growth levers. CEO Chris Kempczinski stated after Q4: “McDonald’s value leadership is working.

By listening to customers and taking action, we have improved traffic and strengthened our value & affordability scores. That focus helped increase global systemwide sales by 8% and delivered strong comp sales growth across all segments this quarter.” The operational turnaround is evident in the data.

With 90% confidence, our buy recommendation rests on a loyalty platform scaling toward 250 million users, a restaurant expansion pipeline adding unit economics, and a beta of 0.53 making this one of the lower-volatility ways to gain consumer exposure.

Consumer spending on food services holding near current levels and U.S. comp sales sustaining positive momentum into 2026 are the key variables to watch.