Why FedEx Is a Buy at These Levels With 84% One-Year Gains Behind It
FedEx (NYSE:FDX | FDX Price Prediction) is one of the few large industrials that has actually delivered on a turnaround narrative this year, and the chart shows it. After a nearly 84% one-year run, with the DRIVE program clearly working,…
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FedEx (NYSE:FDX | FDX Price Prediction) is one of the few large industrials that has actually delivered on a turnaround narrative this year, and the chart shows it. After a nearly 84% one-year run, with the DRIVE program clearly working, the question now is whether shares can keep grinding higher into the FedEx Freight spin-off on June 1, 2026. My answer, based on the 24/7 Wall St. price target model, is yes.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for the stock is $434.49 over the next 12 months, implying 11.99% upside from the current $387.98 quote. That is a buy rating with a high confidence level of 90%.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $387.98 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $434.49 |
| Upside | 11.99% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
The Rally Has Real Earnings Behind It
FedEx is up 34.85% year to date and 83.86% over the past year, with shares sitting roughly 1% below the 52-week high of $399.67.
The catalyst was Q3 FY2026, reported March 19, 2026: adjusted EPS of $5.25 versus a $4.13 consensus (a 26.98% beat) on revenue of $24 billion, up 8.3% YoY. The Federal Express segment grew 10% YoY to $21.15 billion, with International Priority revenue up 13%.
Management raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $16.05 to $16.85 and revenue growth to 6% to 6.5%, while trimming capex to no more than $4.10 billion.
The Case for $450 and Higher
Bulls have plenty to point to. The DRIVE program delivered $2.20 billion in structural savings in FY2025 alone, with another $1 billion in permanent reductions targeted for FY2026. Network 2.0 keeps removing cost.
The June 1, 2026 spin-off of FedEx Freight (ticker FDXF) should unlock a higher-multiple LTL pure play. A 5.9% rate increase took effect January 5, and $1.3 billion remains under the buyback. Our bull case projects shares reaching $453.89 in 12 months, a 16.99% return.
What Could Go Wrong
FedEx Freight saw revenue fall 5% YoY in Q3, with average daily shipments down 6%, and the spin-off carries $126 million in separation costs. Q3 operating income still slipped, reflecting spin-off charges and reinvestment rather than core demand erosion.
Tariff uncertainty, MD-11 groundings, and a third CFO search since 2020 add governance noise. Our bear case sees shares slipping to $358.11, a 7.7% drawdown.
Bottom Line
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $434.49 is a buy at 90% confidence. The tipping factor for me is the combination of accelerating revenue, raised guidance, and Executive Chairman R. Brad Martin’s accumulation of 14,253 shares at $147 to $245.
The setup looks constructive if the FedEx Freight spin-off lands cleanly on June 1. The thesis weakens if Q4 guidance signals volume softness extending into FY2027.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $434.49 |
| 2030 | $575.38 |
These projections assume FedEx executes on Network 2.0, completes the Freight spin-off cleanly, and grows EPS in the high single digits. Significant upside or downside could come from tariff policy shifts or e-commerce volume swings.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
