Reports surfaced at the beginning of this month that BP (NYSE: BP | BP Price Prediction) is weighing a sale of all or part of its U.K. North Sea operations, potentially worth around £2 billion. This is the first major strategic move under CEO Meg O’Neill, who took over on April 1, 2026. The question now is whether BP is slimming down to fight off a takeover or to be bought.
The Disposal Machine
The North Sea review is one piece of a $20 billion divestment program targeted for completion by 2027. Already in motion are the Castrol sale to Stonepeak ($10.1 billion EV, about $6 billion net to BP, announced Dec. 2025), the Gelsenkirchen refinery sale to Klesch Group, U.S. Permian/Eagle Ford midstream stakes to Sixth Street for $1.5 billion, U.S. onshore wind to LS Power, and Serica Energy’s purchase of Culzean for $232 million.
O’Neill frames it cleanly: “bp is a great company, with highly skilled people and world-class assets…simplifying how we work, unlocking growth and driving improved returns.” The share buyback was suspended with the Q4 2025 results to accelerate debt reduction, with a net debt target of $14 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2027, versus $25.3 billion today.
Why Shell Speculation Won’t Die
In December 2025, Shell (NYSE: SHEL) M&A chief Greg Gut resigned after CEO Wael Sawan and CFO Sinead Gorman blocked his proposed BP acquisition; Shell chair Andrew Mackenzie was reportedly more open to the acquisition. Since then, Shell has carried a market cap of $234.87 billion, more than twice BP’s $112.81 billion. The Adura JV combining Shell and Equinor’s UK offshore operations already demonstrates that Shell will consolidate North Sea assets when the economics work. Shell’s firepower is substantial but stretched: net debt of $52.61 billion, gearing of 23.2%, and a $13.6 billion ARC Resources deal already on the books.
Other Bidders Look Distracted
Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is still consumed by the $53 billion Hess acquisition that was stalled by Exxon arbitration over Guyana’s Stabroek Block. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) is in organic-growth mode, divesting Hong Kong fuel retail and pushing Permian and Guyana barrels. Neither company has explicitly commented on BP’s divestment program or signaled acquisition interest in recent news.
The Take
BP’s stock is up 53.2% over one year but down 5.6% in the past week, and trades at a forward P/E of 9 against an EV/EBITDA of 5; that is takeover math. O’Neill is building the “simpler, stronger, more valuable bp” that her predecessor promised. But the cleaner the portfolio gets, the easier it is to price. A defensive reset and a takeover prep look identical from the outside, and Shell knows exactly where the file is.
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