Solana Price Prediction: Is SOL About to Break $100 — or Repeat May’s -6% Average?

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) broke above $90 on May 8 and has gained 10% over the last week to trade around $95. This marks the first time Solana has reached this level since it dropped to $71 in early February. With momentum returning, many holders are now asking whether Solana can break above $100 by the end of May.

History shows that Solana has averaged a 6% loss in May since 2020—although the coin has delivered positive returns in the last two years. We looked into Solana’s historical performance in May and what it could mean for SOL’s chances of trading above $100 this month.

Solana’s Historical Performance in May Over the Last Seven Years

Solana has averaged a 6% loss in May since 2020, meaning investors have lost more money in May than they’ve gained. The table below breaks down SOL’s May performance:

Solana’s May 2020 loss of 17.2% came when investors were uncertain about its future following the pandemic. The coin’s 24% loss in 2021 was driven by crypto sell-offs following tweets from Elon Musk about Bitcoin energy usage. With SOL up 1,191% in Q1 2021, many holders used the sell-offs as an exit, which further contributed to the downturn.

The biggest loss came in May 2022 when the crypto market crashed on the back of rising interest rates and the Terra/Luna collapse. Solana lost 46.3% in that month, which contributed massively to the 72% loss recorded in Q2 2022. In 2023, SOL recorded a modest 8.66% loss, driven mostly by profit taking from holders after its 140.2% gain in January 2023.

The bearish trend reversed in 2024 with a 30.5% gain, driven by renewed institutional interest and ETF momentum across the crypto sector. That trend continued into May 2025 with a modest 6% gain. Now in 2026, Solana has already posted gains of about 15%—the second-best May performance in SOL’s history.

What Needs to Happen for Solana to Trade Above $100

Solana last tested the $100 mark on February 2. From $95 today, the SOL price needs a 5% move to break above $100 in May, but that move depends on whether key catalysts improve market confidence.

ETF Inflows

Solana ETF monthly inflows peaked at $419.38 million in November 2025, then dropped massively over the next three months to $63 million in February. The drop in ETF inflows coincided with SOL’s drop below the $100 support. ETF inflows fell further in March and April, posting $45.44 million and $39.93 million, respectively—and SOL traded between $80 and $90 over that period.

Inflows in May currently stand at $84.87 million, but for Solana to trade above $100, that figure would need to break above $100 million. When this happens, it would confirm investors’ confidence in Solana, which could push the coin above $100 before the end of the month.

Alpenglow Upgrade

The Alpenglow upgrade is another clear catalyst in May. This upgrade would see Solana move from TowerBFT to two new systems: Votor, a new voting and transaction confirmation system, and Rotor, a faster data-sharing system that will replace Turbine.

Solana has seen about seven major network outages since 2020—with the last one recorded in February 2024—and the Alpenglow upgrade aims to solve that issue by reducing finality to around 150 milliseconds and potentially as low as 100 milliseconds. The upgrade would bring Solana’s response time to levels only rivaled by Web 2 systems like Google.

The upgrade entered community testing on May 11, moving it closer to mainnet in Q3 2026—and that momentum could trigger SOL’s move to $100.

Will SOL Break Above $100 or Follow Its Historical May Pullback Pattern?

Solana would most likely trade above $100 in May, especially since the coin has delivered positive returns in May for the last two years—and May 2026 is currently setting up to continue that trend.

Investors are currently pricing in the Alpenglow upgrade and taking positions in expectation that Solana would rally on the back of it. As market confidence improves, a 5% move to $100 over the next few weeks is realistic.

If ETF inflows return to above $100 million and the upgrade testing runs smoothly, Solana is likely to break above the $100 resistance level. If not, Solana could return to the $80-$90 range.