Rocket Lab Sinks 9%, Planet Labs Tumbles 6%, Intuitive Machines Slides 5%: Space Rally Hits a Wall

Pure-play commercial space stocks are getting hit hard at midday on Tuesday. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) is down 9%, Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) is off 6%, and Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) has slipped 5%.

There’s no single company-specific headline driving the move in Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, or Intuitive Machines. The selloff looks coordinated across the complex, hitting launch, Earth observation, and lunar services names at once. After monster runs into this week, that’s a textbook profit-taking setup.

The prediction-market crowd already sees it. Polymarket’s daily direction market for RKLB stock priced the odds of a down close today at 99%, conviction that lines up almost exactly with the intraday move.

Momentum Unwind Hits the Whole Sector

The rallies going into Tuesday were extreme. Rocket Lab stock entered the session up a stunning 413% over the past year. Planet Labs stock was the real eye-catcher, sitting on a 111% one-year gain.

Intuitive Machines stock wasn’t far behind, up 172% over twelve months heading into today’s session. When three names move that vertically in the same theme, the eventual reset tends to come together too.

Retail positioning amplified the setup. Reddit sentiment on RKLB hit “very bullish” readings as high as 88 on May 15, then flipped to bearish (a score of 32) by this morning. One viral WallStreetBets post titled “1.3M to 450k to 1.25M” drew 1,711 upvotes celebrating a leveraged RKLB recovery trade, the kind of euphoria that typically marks a near-term top.

The Bull Case Hasn’t Changed

The structural story behind the space rally is still intact. Rocket Lab’s fundamentals support the narrative, with Q1 FY2026 revenue of $200.35 million, up 64% year over year (YoY), and a backlog of $2.2 billion. Its Neutron rocket debut remains the major catalyst later this year.

Planet Labs has been stacking government wins, including a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) renewal, a NASA task order worth $13.5 million, and a €240 million German government contract. Its remaining performance obligations jumped 361% YoY to $672.47 million last quarter, real evidence that demand for satellite imagery is broadening.

Intuitive Machines is leaning hard into lunar services and infrastructure. Q1 FY2026 revenue surged 199% YoY to $186.73 million following the $800 million Lanteris Space Systems acquisition, and management guided to FY26 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion with positive adjusted EBITDA.

The Bear Case Centers on Valuation

The skepticism is just as easy to articulate. Rocket Lab’s market cap sits near $68.65 billion, Planet Labs is around $12.96 billion, and Intuitive Machines is roughly $5.13 billion. Those figures discount years of execution against companies still burning cash.

Dilution risk, competition from better-capitalized launch operators, and lumpy government contract timing all argue for a more cautious entry. Even after today’s drop, valuations across the trio remain stretched relative to near-term revenue.

What to Watch

The Polymarket May 2026 market for RKLB stock still has the most likely outcome clustered at $116, suggesting traders expect stabilization rather than a sustained breakdown. Whether buyers step in this afternoon will tell us if today is a reset or the start of a deeper unwind.

For watchful investors, the next signals are company-specific: Neutron progress at Rocket Lab, fresh imagery contract wins at Planet Labs, and the next lunar mission cadence at Intuitive Machines. The space-economy thesis hasn’t broken; the price action is simply reminding the market that vertical moves rarely hold without new catalysts.