Investors are watching NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) ahead of Q1 fiscal 2027 results due after the close today. Shares are up 18.3% year to date, and prediction markets price in a 97% chance of a beat. The bar could not be higher.
Sky-High Expectations Meet a Sky-High Stock
Last quarter set the stage. NVIDIA closed FY2026 with non-GAAP EPS of $1.62 against $1.52 consensus on revenue of $68.13 billion, up 73.2% year-over-year. Data Center hit $62.31 billion, with networking surging 263% on NVLink fabric for GB200 and GB300 systems.
Management then guided Q1 to roughly $78 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%, excluding any China Data Center compute. Since the February earnings report, NVIDIA disclosed a $10 billion investment in Anthropic, a multigenerational Meta deal spanning millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, and a CoreWeave path to 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030. The stock has climbed 9.39% in the past month to $220.61.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q1 FY2027 Consensus | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.77 | Implied triple-digit |
| Revenue | ~$79 billion | Over 100% |
| Management Guide | $78B ±2% | Excludes China DC compute |
| FY2026 Actual (reference) | $215.94B revenue, $4.77 EPS | +65.5% |
The Guide Will Define the Reaction
A beat looks priced in. The Polymarket odds have hovered between 94.85% and 97.45% all week, and traders give the May 20 session a 63.5% probability of closing green. That tells me the guidance is what matters most.
I will be watching three things. First, can revenue clear $80 billion despite zero China Data Center compute in the model? CFO Colette Kress said NVIDIA expects sequential growth throughout calendar 2026, with supply commitments now at $95.2 billion. Second, networking. After a 263% YoY surge to $10.98 billion last quarter, this segment is the cleanest read on Blackwell rack deployments.
Third, gross margin. Management guided 75.0% non-GAAP, but they also begin folding $1.9 billion of stock-based compensation into non-GAAP this quarter. Look past the headline to the underlying mix as Blackwell Ultra ramps and Vera Rubin samples ship. Gaming is flagged as a supply-constrained headwind. Any updates on China licensing or hyperscaler 2027 commitments will move the stock more than the EPS line.
The Quarter That Has to Reset the AI Narrative
NVIDIA has beaten expectations in every quarter of FY2026, yet the stock fell on three of the four earnings days. That is the tension Jensen Huang must address. Retail sentiment cooled to a neutral 48 to 54 on Reddit today after a euphoric run. For shares to extend their 62.77% one-year gain, the company needs a blowout.
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