Anyone who has held XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) since last summer has had a rough ride. The token peaked at $3.65 in July 2025, then started a grind lower that still hasn’t stopped. The XRP price trades near $1.37 today, about 63% below that high, and this past week erased the gains it got when the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate committee on May 14.
The slide has dropped XRP’s value right back into the $1.30s, and just below that range is the $1.28 support, which is the line holding the XRP price firm against a much bigger drop. So what happens if $1.28 finally breaks?
Why $1.28 Is the Key Level for XRP
XRP has been stuck in the same trap for most of 2026, bouncing between $1.30 and $1.50 and getting knocked back every time it tries to push through the top. The 50-day moving average now runs above the price at around $1.46, so the line that once propped XRP up is now capping it, showing the bears have the upper hand.
The most significant floor under all of this is $1.28. XRP bottomed at $1.11 in late February, when the Iran war piled onto an already-falling market, and buyers have stepped in around $1.28 to defend it on every dip since. It also lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, a level traders watch closely in a downtrend.
XRP trades about 7% above the $1.28 support right now. The trouble is that support gets weaker the more often it’s tested. Each test chips away at it, and the next one could be the one that finally gives way.
Where XRP Could Fall If the $1.28 Support Breaks
If the $1.28 floor breaks, XRP will likely step down through a series of supports, and the chart already shows where those steps are.
The first is $1.18. XRP has been carving out a descending triangle since late 2024, with each high coming in lower while the price grinds along a falling path. If $1.28 gives way, $1.18 is the next target, and it’s about 14% below where XRP trades now. Once $1.28 cracks, momentum traders pile on and automated selling kicks in, and XRP can fall through that first leg quickly..
Below $1.18 is $1.11, and this is the level holders should worry about most. XRP bottomed there in late February, and that low matters because of what it broke. Back in October 2025, XRP crashed from $2.83 to around $1.53 in a single day before retracing, and that $1.53 low looked like the bottom at the time.
However, XRP’s February slide went straight through it, all the way to $1.11. So a dip below $1.11 wouldn’t just mark a new low for the year, but would mean the selling has run deeper than it did even at the worst of October’s crash.
If XRP loses the $1.11 mark, the next line down is $1.00. The token hasn’t traded under a dollar since November 2024, right after the election rally kicked off, and a level like that usually only breaks under a real shock, like a market-wide liquidation or an exchange collapse. Should XRP lose it, the token would give back everything it gained since the election, and the automated selling that tends to trigger below round numbers can turn a slow slide into a freefall.
The worst case is $0.80. That only comes into play if Bitcoin drops under $60,000 and stocks sell off alongside it. From $1.28, that would be a 38% fall. It’s unlikely to happen, but the chart leaves it open if buyers fail to show up at every level above it.
What Could Push XRP Below $1.28?
XRP doesn’t move on its own, and mostly follows Bitcoin and the broader market—and BTC is looking shaky at the moment. The Bitcoin price trades around $77,440 today, down 4.3% on the week, while the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1% to its highest in a year.
When yields rise like that, money tends to flow out of risky bets like crypto. XRP and Bitcoin move together roughly 75% of the time, so if BTC slips under $75,000 in the coming days, XRP loses the main support the broader market has been giving it.
The bigger blow this week came from Goldman Sachs. The bank’s latest SEC filing showed it had sold its entire $154 million XRP ETF stake, and that was the largest known institutional position in those funds. Goldman also dumped its Solana ETF holdings and cut its Ethereum exposure by 70%, all while leaving its $700 million in Bitcoin untouched. When Wall Street’s most closely watched bank walks away from XRP but holds onto its Bitcoin, other institutions tend to notice.
The one thing that could turn all this around is the CLARITY Act, which would lock XRP’s status as a commodity into federal law. The bill cleared the Senate committee on May 14, but the bill still needs 60 votes on the full Senate floor, and that vote isn’t expected until June or July.
What’s Next for the XRP Price?
Everything comes down to a fight between two price levels. As long as XRP keeps holding above $1.28, it can grind sideways in the $1.30 to $1.50 band it’s traded all year while the market waits on the CLARITY Act.
The level that matters on the way up is $1.50, which is the top of the range and the ceiling that has capped every rally since February. XRP has failed there again and again, so a strong daily close above $1.50 would signal that the bears are losing their grip—and that could see the price rally toward $1.60-$1.80.
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