Should You Buy Crypto Before or After the Next Fed Rate Cut?

The Fed held rates again at its April 29 meeting, the third straight hold this year, and prediction markets currently price roughly a 90% chance of another hold at the June 16-17 meeting.

So the question of whether to buy crypto before or after the next cut breaks down into two parts: when does the cut actually come, and what has crypto done every time the Fed moved before? We went back through every Fed rate cut since 2019 to see what could be on the cards for the upcoming FOMC meetings.

When Is the Next Fed Rate Cut Happening?

At the last FOMC meeting on April 29, of the 12 members, Stephen Miran voted for a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan voted to maintain the rate but opposed the easing bias in the statement. So, 4 members in total dissented, while 8 agreed. Therefore, the general consensus around the crypto community is that the next Fed rate cut is not coming soon.

Additionally, prediction markets price roughly a 97% chance the Fed holds rates at the June 16-17 meeting, while J.P. Morgan projects rates unchanged through year-end. If J.P. Morgan and prediction markets are right, anyone waiting to buy crypto “before the cut” is looking at a window measured in years.

What Has Crypto Done Historically Around Fed Rate Cuts?

The rate cut pattern since 2019 is messier than most people expect. Some cuts triggered rallies; others triggered sell-offs. The context around each cut—whether it signaled a genuine policy shift or just continued what was already priced in—mattered just as much as the cut itself.

July–October 2019

The Fed cut three times in 2019: July 31, September 18, and October 30, and Bitcoin didn’t wait for any of these cuts before rallying. BTC climbed from $9,000 in late June to $13,000 by mid-July, pricing in the easing cycle months before the first cut arrived.

When the July 31 cut happened, the market sold the news. The two follow-up cuts in September and October also produced no recovery. Then by December, Bitcoin had dropped back to around $7,000. The trade was over before the first cut landed—because the market had already taken it.

March 2020

In 2020, COVID forced the Fed into two emergency cuts: 50 basis points on March 3, then 100 basis points on March 15, bringing rates to near zero. Bitcoin didn’t go bullish on either announcement—it crashed to $3,825 alongside every other risk asset.

However, as liquidity from the earlier cuts worked through markets over the following year, Bitcoin rallied to $69,000 by November 2021. The cuts built the conditions for a rally that arrived months later; they didn’t trigger one immediately.

September 2024

The Fed cut 50 basis points on September 18, 2024, its first cut in four years. After the cut, Bitcoin gained roughly 6.6% in the week that followed and held about 11% gains over the next month. This was the clearest positive post-cut reaction of any cycle in recent years.

After four years of tightening, the policy shift was a genuine new signal, not something the market had already priced in. When the cut represents a real change in direction, crypto notices.

November 2024

The Fed cut on November 7, 2024, was a 25 basis point cut. After the cut, Bitcoin surged 16% in the week after and over 32% in the month that followed—the strongest post-cut gains in the entire 2024 cycle.

However, Trump’s election victory came on November 5, two days before the cut, making it impossible to isolate the Fed’s contribution from the effect of Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

December 2024

The December 18 cut brought total 2024 easing to 100 basis points across three meetings. Bitcoin briefly broke above $108,000 around the announcement, then pulled back below $100,000. Ethereum, on the other hand, dropped roughly 10% in the month that followed.

The market had already priced in the cut, the election effects had faded, and there was nothing new to push the rally further.

September 2025

The first 2025 cut came on September 17—25 basis points, the first reduction since December 2024. Bitcoin was trading near $116,000 on the day of the announcement, and the reaction was muted.

The cut matched expectations exactly, and the market had already positioned for it. Since the cut did not represent a new signal, the market barely moved.

October–December 2025

The October 29 cut brought another 25 basis points, but when Powell signaled the December cut wasn’t guaranteed, Bitcoin fell from $116,000 to $109,000 within hours.

The December 10 cut, the third of 2025, brought rates to 3.50%-3.75%. Afterward, Bitcoin briefly spiked above $92,000 before settling back down. Three FOMC members dissented—the highest dissent count since 2019—signaling growing internal resistance to further easing. The market treated the cut as old news, and the cycle quietly ended.

Is Buying Before the Cut or After It the Better Trade?

We think the best time to buy is before the cut, but only if you’re early enough that the market hasn’t already priced in the move. The 2019 cycle is the best example. Bitcoin gained 44% before the first cut, then spent five months falling afterward. The market absorbed the entire easing cycle in advance and gave nothing back afterward.

The September 2024 cut was the exception that proves the rule. Four years of tightening meant the policy shift genuinely surprised positioning, and buyers after the cut still made money. But even then, the strongest returns went to those who bought in the months before the September announcement, when the Fed’s pivot was becoming clearer but hadn’t yet been priced in.

The 2025 cycle confirmed what 2019 started, showing that each successive cut moved crypto less than the one before. By December 2025, the easing cycle was fully absorbed, and the cut itself didn’t register. The further into a cutting cycle you buy, the less the cuts do for you.

The consistent pattern across all seven cuts is that crypto front-runs rate cuts—it doesn’t react to them. The biggest returns came from positioning before the market priced in the policy shift, not on the day of the announcement.