Larry Kudlow spent Wednesday evening on Fox Business arguing that the economy is stronger than headlines admit. “The Trumpian economy is absolutely booming as is the stock market,” he said, listing the receipts: an Atlanta Fed nowcast pointing to 4.3% real GDP growth in the second quarter, core goods prices up only 1.1% excluding food and energy, household wealth around 180 trillion dollars, and profits soaring 15% or better. The pump price, in Kudlow’s telling, is noise around a much louder signal.
The macro data mostly cooperates. BEA corporate profits hit $4,392.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 12% year over year, the fourth straight quarter of acceleration. Polymarket traders give an 80.5% probability that the U.S. avoids recession by year end 2026, a figure that has drifted down five points over the past month as Q2 data firms up. Q1 real GDP came in softer at 1.6%, dragged by an import surge, but the underlying components Kudlow cares about, gross private investment up 7.0% and government spending recovering, are where the “Trumpian” story lives.
The gas-price asterisk is real, and it is on the income statement
The EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook now forecasts Brent crude averaging $95 per barrel in 2026 and retail gasoline averaging $3.88 per gallon. That is not nothing for households or for companies that burn jet fuel for a living. The market is asking whether those companies can grow through it.
GE Aerospace is the cleanest expression of the capex boom
GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE | GE Price Prediction) put up a quarter strong enough to let a CEO maintain guidance with a smile. Q1 2026 orders hit $23.0 billion, up 87% year over year, with commercial wins including 300+ LEAP-1A engines for American Airlines, 300 GEnx for United, and 60 GEnx for Delta. Adjusted EPS of $1.86 beat the $1.60 consensus, and management is trending toward the high end of its $7.10 to $7.40 full-year adjusted EPS range. The earnings release flags elevated Brent through Q3 2026 as a risk and still raises the bar. The stock has returned 31.89% over the past year.
NVIDIA carries the AI infrastructure line
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.62 billion, up 85.2% year over year, with data center revenue of $75.25 billion and total supply commitments now at $119 billion. Jensen Huang called it “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history“, and the company authorized an $80 billion buyback and lifted the quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25. Shares are up 14% year to date. This is the capex Kudlow’s panel points to when they say business capital investment is running at 9.4% annually.
Ford, KeyCorp, and the American Airlines stress test
Ford (NYSE:F) raised its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion after a Q1 that included a $1.30 billion one-time IEEPA tariff benefit, which explicitly thanks the policy mix. Shares are up 23.85% year to date.
KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) showed EPS up 33% year over year, NIM expansion of 29 basis points to 2.87%, and a raised FY26 NII growth outlook of 9 to 10%. Regional bank net interest margins widening on stable funding is exactly the bank-credit health check that recession callers keep flunking.
American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) is the gas-price stress test in equity form. The carrier delivered record Q1 revenue of $13.91 billion, up 10.8%, with Atlantic PRASM up 16.7% and AAdvantage enrollments up 25%, while absorbing more than $4 billion of incremental fuel expense for the year. CEO Robert Isom still expects “modest profitability for the year assuming the current forward fuel curve”. Shares have ripped 27.74% over the past month as investors decided demand was eating fuel for breakfast.
What the 401(k) data says about Trump’s claim
President Trump’s line about 401(k)s at all-time highs checks out. Fidelity’s Q4 2025 retirement analysis showed the average 401(k) balance up more than 11% over Q4 2024, the third straight year of double-digit annual increases, with five-year continuous savers averaging $304,200.
Investors sitting on those balances are facing a rebalancing question rather than a chase, because a portfolio that drifted to 80% equities in 2023 is now riding a much heavier AI and industrials weighting than it signed up for. Watch the Q2 GDP release and Brent’s path through summer. If Kudlow’s 4.3% nowcast holds and crude rolls over, his thesis stops being a Fox Business monologue and starts being the base case.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks