Qualcomm Stock’s 60% Moment: Is This a Generational Entry Point or a Value Trap?

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM | QCOM Price Prediction) stock has finally made up for lost time, joining the AI race at a critical and heated time in the boom. With shares up more than 60% in the past month, the underrated edge AI play is finally starting to get the respect it deserves. But whether the big breakout is just the start of an even bigger mover higher remains the big question.

In one of my prior pieces dated March 20, I referred to Qualcomm as the “biggest AI bargain of the year” due to its many AI catalysts on the horizon. Since then, shares have nearly doubled, gaining around 94% in just over two months.

The easy money might have already been made, but I still see value here at north of $250 per share.

Qualcomm might not be the same bargain it was, but it’s still cheap

For the most part, shares still look quite cheap on the surface, going for 21.9 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) — a multiple that’s still very much reasonable following a vertical move higher. The multiple re-rating might still have a ways to go, especially as we view the firm as something far more than just a smartphone chip supplier.

With ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits), efficiency-focused inference hardware, and a move towards AI at the edge, it feels natural that Qualcomm would finally get a chance to step up to the plate. 

After the latest deal that will see Qualcomm supply millions of AI ASICs to ByteDance — yes, that’s the firm behind TikTok — it should come as no surprise that shares are starting to go into overdrive. Perhaps investors were right to give Qualcomm the benefit of the doubt as it diversified beyond iPhone maker Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). The big question for investors is whether Qualcomm can ink more big chip deals as an inference inflection point arrives.

In my view, I think Apple could single-handedly lead a consumer-facing AI revolution as more people start looking to AI specs as a reason to upgrade their hardware.

As on-device AI becomes more of a needle-mover, I think it’s also hard to dismiss the potential for an AI-driven hardware sales surge. For Qualcomm, it also stands to benefit from an AI device supercycle, whether we’re talking about phones or PCs. Could we reach a point where the NPU becomes a bigger selling point than the CPU? Possibly.

Don’t discount the potential behind budget PCs

What’s more, though, is that budget devices might be a golden opportunity for Qualcomm, as people look to find good deals amid the ridiculous amount of inflation in DRAM, NAND, and other PC components. Apple’s low-cost MacBook Neo has been an early hit. And Qualcomm might be able to make some wins in the budget market as PCs look to lower the bar on price.

The Snapdragon C (the “C” is for compute, not cheap) silicon platform looks quite promising, especially as ultra-budget is where the market starts to heat up, with consumers looking to save money by settling for powerful smartphone chips within a laptop form factor.

From AI infrastructure to consumer-facing hardware, Qualcomm is really starting to feel the wind at its back. If Qualcomm can keep inking new supply deals while positioning itself as a share-taker in the AI PC world, especially in the budget realm, I think a higher re-rating in the stock would make sense. Either way, investors should keep tabs on the firm as it looks to make its next move after an incredible spike.