CNBC’s Jim Cramer is making a paradoxical call on the pending SpaceX IPO. On Squawk on the Street this week, he predicted the stock could double on its opening trade to a $4 trillion valuation, while publicly trying to talk retail investors out of buying. The mechanics he points to (a microscopic float and forced index-fund demand) are the same mechanics he warns could trap anyone chasing the pop.
The biggest beneficiaries of this IPO sit on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS | GS Price Prediction) secured the primary underwriter role, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) handles the retail allocation Cramer is talking about.
The Fixed-Price Setup
Elon Musk opted for an unusual structure with a fixed price of $135, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation rather than a traditional price range. SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion and is set to debut on NASDAQ about a week from Cramer’s segment. That fixed-price choice removes normal book-building discovery and shifts all price discovery to the first trade, where Cramer’s concern starts.
Factor One: The Tiny Float
The SpaceX S-1 confirms the lock-up architecture Cramer is pointing to. Per the filing, the Founder and certain significant investors have agreed with the underwriters that during a period of 366 days after the date of this prospectus, an aggregate of shares owned by them (including 100% of the shares owned by the Founder) are restricted. Most other holders face a 180-day lock-up, with releases controlled by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, on behalf of the underwriters.
This means that very little stock is tradable on day one. Scarce supply will likely meet eager demand, and modest buying can violently spike the price.
Factor Two: Forced Index-Fund Demand
Once a company this large lists and qualifies for major indexes, passive funds tracking those benchmarks must buy. They are price-insensitive by design. Layer that mechanical bid on top of a tiny float, and you get the conditions Cramer is betting on. As he put it, “I am trying to influence Morgan Stanley, which has got the retail part to say to discourage their people from putting in market orders because they may get the stock to $4 trillion just by their own.”
Cramer’s Warning: The Cerebras Parallel
Cramer’s deeper concern is what happens after the pop. He invoked Cerebras, which on its May 14, 2026 debut priced at $185 and opened at $350, briefly trading as high as $386 before closing at $311. As of today, Cerebras trades at $218 per share.
His verdict on SpaceX: “It could be very much like 1999, where they opened it at 4 trillion and then walked it down. If you look at Cerebras, that is a disaster. Everybody who bought Cerebras between 320 and 360, well, they are not ever going to buy another stock.” He is candid about his own first-day bet: “SpaceX doubles at the opening, as I think it will. I have it on DraftKings. I am looking good.”
What It Means for GS and MS
Goldman is already pricing in a strong first half of the year. Shares are up 19.56% year to date and 75.84% over one year. Q4 2025 advisory revenue hit $1.356 billion, up 41% YoY, with full-year investment banking fees of $9.34 billion. CEO David Solomon told investors the firm expects “momentum to accelerate in 2026, activating a flywheel of activity across our entire firm.” A SpaceX fee pool of $800 million to over $1 billion across 22+ banks would land squarely in that flywheel.
Morgan Stanley sits on the retail-distribution side that Cramer is trying to influence. The firm posted record Q1 2026 results with revenue of $20.58 billion, EPS of $3.43, advisory revenue up 74% YoY, and ROTCE of 27.1%. Shares have climbed 19.64% year to date. Wolfe Research separately flagged a wealth management boost from Shareworks stock plan administration, securities lending, and conversion of SpaceX employees into advisory clients.
The Takeaway
Cramer’s framework is a warning dressed as a prediction. The tiny float and forced index demand that could produce a spectacular pop could make buying in the open market dangerous because the price has nowhere to go once index inclusion is complete and lock-ups unwind. SpaceX’s durable value hinges on years-away execution on Starship integration and Starlink v3. For everyday investors, the practical lesson is to avoid market orders on a mega-cap IPO debut.
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