Rumors are largely gone. Insiders have leaked that the SpaceX IPO trigger will get pulled on June 12. Elon Musk’s company will try to raise $80 billion at a valuation north of $1.75 tillion. Some speculate that the figure will be closer to $2 trillion, making it as valuable as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction).
No one knows whether the share price will go up or down. IPO prices have been known to increase by 50% on the first day of trading. During the dotcom era, they could double on the first day.
There is, however, a cautionary tale. Facebook went public in 2012. The IPO price was $38. Later in the year, it dropped to $18. Analysts believe that after the IPO, it was hard to value Facebook’s almost one billion users, according to Wharton.
SpaceX’s current shareholders have a similar problem. What will the market for rockets be in one year, two years, or three years? Will Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin launch a viable rocket? Apparently, several other companies hope to enter the rocket market.
A larger question is the value of xAI. The social media (X) and AI (xAI) were valued at $250 billion combined when they merged with SpaceX. There is evidence that X has lost money since Muck bought it. xAI operates in a highly competitive market alongside OpenAI, Meta (NASDAQ: META), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). And, the list of competitors is actually much longer.
Today, demand for SpaceX is so high that it will soar on the day it goes public. In the not-too-distant future, it may become clear whether SpaceX can realistically launch satellite AI data centers. And, some of the money may go to fund xAI’s artificial intelligence, which is a sector failure by most measures.
The specter of Facebook is lurking around the corner. Over time, it made a comeback. Today, founder Mark Zuckerberg is worth $218 billion. That is well behind Musk’s $680 billion. If SpaceX has a rough start, those numbers could converge
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