Ranking the Market’s Bets on 3 Blockbuster IPOs: OpenAI, Stripe, and Consensys

The 2026 initial public offering (IPO) calendar has narrowed down to a handful of marquee names that retail and institutional investors have been waiting on for years. While the SpaceX IPO grabs the headlines, three others also stand out: OpenAI, Stripe, and Consensys (the parent of MetaMask). All three are still private, with no listed shares, no analyst coverage, and no public price. The only way to gauge how Wall Street is positioning is through prediction markets, the most recent private funding rounds, and disclosed IPO process steps.

To rank them, we are using a simple framework: market-implied probability of an IPO by year-end, the latest verifiable private valuation, and the concreteness of the IPO process (confidential filings, banks hired, public leadership commentary). Higher conviction plus a clearer process equals a higher rank. Prediction-market odds and tender-offer marks are imperfect proxies, but they are the cleanest signals available for companies that have not opened their books to the public.

3. Stripe: Big Number, No Rush

Stripe lands at the bottom of the ranking because the market is essentially pricing out a near-term listing. Polymarket assigns a 99.8% probability that Stripe will not IPO by June 30, 2026, with every IPO-by-deadline outcome trading between 0.0005 and 0.002. Conviction in the “no IPO” outcome has firmed, with the one-month price drift moving +0.0205 toward no IPO.

Stripe’s most recent tender offer priced the company at $159 billion in February 2026, giving employees and early backers liquidity without subjecting the business to public-market scrutiny. Co-founder John Collison reiterated in January 2026 that the company remains “not in any rush.” Profitable payment-volume growth and new initiatives in AI and stablecoins reduce the need for primary capital. Only a strategic pivot or acute capital need would move these odds.

2. Consensys: A Crypto Wild Card

Consensys, the company behind the MetaMask wallet, lands in the middle of the ranking. Polymarket gives a 20.5% implied probability that Consensys IPOs by December 31, 2026, with the Yes price last trading at 0.13 and a bid/ask spread of 0.16 to 0.25. Momentum has been negative: the contract is down 0.09 over the past month.

Earlier resolution dates have already resolved No, and the June 30, 2026, contract is priced at just 1.05%, while the September 30, 2026, contract trades at 7.5%. There has been no confirmed banker mandate or confidential filing disclosed. The setup is more of a Q4 option on crypto-market conditions than a high-conviction calendar event. An acquisition would resolve the market No automatically, an underappreciated tail risk for traders betting on a listing.

1. OpenAI: The Highest-Conviction IPO of the Cycle

OpenAI is the clearest expected-value play of the three. Polymarket prices a 73% probability of an IPO by December 31, 2026, and that contract is up 46.5% over the past month. The catalyst stack is concrete: a confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported in mid-May 2026, a favorable resolution of the Elon Musk lawsuit, and a March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation.

In the closing market-cap distribution, traders assign a 46.15% probability that OpenAI debuts above a $1.5 trillion valuation, versus a 28.5% chance of no IPO by year-end. The remaining buckets between $500 billion and $1.25 trillion each trade below 8%. The market is effectively betting on a binary: either OpenAI lists at a premium to its last private mark or it slips into 2027. Execution risk from heavy infrastructure spending and Anthropic’s competitive filing keep the tail meaningful.

The Verdict and the Only Public Proxy

Ranked by IPO conviction, the order is OpenAI, then Consensys, then Stripe. OpenAI would slide if the confidential filing stalls or if regulators intervene. Consensys needs banker confirmation or a crypto market strong enough to pull the timeline forward. Stripe would only move on a board-level pivot.

For investors seeking a single listed vehicle that provides exposure to all three names ahead of any deal, Destiny Tech100 (NYSE: DXYZ) is the rare public closed-end fund holding OpenAI, Stripe, and Consensys in the same portfolio. Its market capitalization is roughly $1.2 billion, and shares are up 30.8% year to date through the most recent close, even after an 18.4% one-week drawdown. The fund has historically traded at a steep premium to net asset value, so the vehicle carries its own pricing risk distinct from the underlying IPO odds.