On CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime Thursday, the conversation circled back to the question every AI investor is now asking out loud. When do OpenAI and Anthropic stop pretending they want to stay private?
The reporters laid out a clock that is mostly running on revenue physics. Anthropic’s revenue is up roughly 4x from last year, while OpenAI’s run rate has doubled over the same period.
Per analyst Kate Luria, these growth rates are “the fastest right now that they will ever be.” Polymarket traders agree the window is opening. The crowd assigns a 77% probability to Anthropic going public by December 31, 2026, and a 23.5% probability to OpenAI listing by the same date. Public-market proxies are how most of you will trade this story for now.
Why the growth-rate clock is ticking
Luria’s point is the whole game. A company with quadrupling revenue can sell a clean compounding narrative. However, a company growing 60% off a bigger base has to explain decel, and decel is where multiples die.
Anthropic confidentially filed its draft S-1 on June 1, 2026, shortly after a $65 billion funding round that valued it at $965 billion. Then, OpenAI followed with its own confidential S-1 on June 8, with underwriter targets near $1 trillion. Being first also matters in a way that is easy to miss. Whoever lists first sets the GAAP and accounting standards Wall Street analysts will use to evaluate the entire sector. Thus, it means the second mover spends its roadshow defending someone else’s definitions.
Moreover, OpenAI carries the added burden of being the bigger spender. OpenAI is to blame for $3.1 billion in investment losses flowing through Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) books in Q1 FY2026 alone.
The hyperscaler threat is also the hyperscaler trade
PitchBook’s Harrison Rolfe flagged the obvious risk, noting Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft, and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) have the ability to “stiffarm and then undercut OpenAI and Anthropic on price.” The same firms are also the cleanest way to own the buildout.
Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI in a stake valued near $135 billion. Furthermore, OpenAI is contractually on the hook for $250 billion in incremental Azure services. Satya Nadella told investors the AI business surpassed a $37 billion annual revenue run rate, up 123% year-over-year in the most recent 10-Q.
Unfortunately, MSFT the stock is down 22% year to date. Retail traders on Reddit openly debating whether “Satya and Zuckerberg are incinerating [more] capital.”
Amazon booked $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains from its Anthropic stake in Q1 2026 and guided to roughly $200 billion in capex this year. Alphabet co-invests in Anthropic while running Gemini against it. This is a posture that helps explain why Cloud backlog crossed $460 billion. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) sells picks and shovels to all of them, with Data Center revenue of $75.25 billion, up 92% year-over-year.
Retail access and the SpaceX warning
The host on Thursday’s segment drew a parallel that should make anyone chasing the IPO pop pause. SpaceX’s offering “was super aggressive” on valuation and has “kind of flatlined since.” Both OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly reserving allocations for retail investors, but replicating “the Musk effect is obviously its own thing” for Sam Altman and Dario Amodei.
That puts Webull (NASDAQ:BULL) and similar retail venues in an interesting spot. Webull launched single-company SPVs through Monark Markets in June for accredited investors who want pre-IPO exposure, and the FINRA pattern-day-trader rule change took effect June 4, 2026. The stock is still down 19% year to date.
The forcing function here is competitive rather than financial. Both companies have the cash they need. What they lack is the willingness to let the other file first. The timing of these filings will set the comparable multiples for every private AI lab still raising at venture rounds.
If Anthropic prices first on a quadrupling revenue narrative, every Series E pitch deck in the Valley resets to that bar. If OpenAI prices first with the larger absolute revenue figure and the heavier capex commitment, the conversation shifts to scale economics and the durability of the Microsoft relationship. Either way, the public comps that matter most are already trading.
Watch the prospectus amendments through the fall, and watch whether Polymarket’s probability of no OpenAI IPO by year-end starts compressing as bankers leak timelines into August earnings calls. Watch the hyperscaler capex commentary on the next round of prints, because any softening in Microsoft’s or Amazon’s 2027 capex framing would give the IPO bears their first real data point.
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