Sometimes the most interesting investment ideas are ones the pitcher admits could go to zero. That is exactly the setup analyst Daniel Velasquez laid out on the We Study Billionaires podcast when he made the case for Wix.com (NASDAQ:WIX | WIX Price Prediction), the Israeli website builder turned AI-driven app platform.
Velasquez was candid: he “wouldn’t be surprised” if Wix is “completely gone” in five years. But the flip side of that coin is what makes this a genuinely asymmetric bet. In his words, “If Wix is still relevant in, let’s say, 5 years, I think it will most likely have been a multibagger from today’s prices.”
Host Trey Lockerbie pushed back early, admitting “when you first told me you’d cover Wix, I thought it would never make it into the portfolio.” But after digging in, he conceded “some of the stats you sent me are impressive” and zeroed in on the puzzle at the heart of the trade: “when I look at the financials for Wix, they look more than solid. And it makes you wonder why this business is trading at one of the most depressed levels it’s ever traded at.”
Why The Stock Looks Broken
WIX is down roughly 50% year-to-date and about 66% over the past year, with shares closing at $52.39 on June 5, 2026, against a 52-week high of $190.93. The market cap now sits near $2.19 billion.
The trigger was a brutal Q1 2026 report. Wix posted non-GAAP EPS of $0.68 against a $1.22 consensus, with revenue of $541.17M growing 14% year over year. Operating income swung to -$69.72M, and sales and marketing spend jumped 79% YoY to $199.59M. Margins got crushed.
Why The Business Looks Healthy
Look at the operating engine and a different picture emerges. Total ARR hit $1.903B, up 15% YoY. Business Solutions grew 17%, Transaction Revenue 19%, Partners Revenue 19%. New user cohort bookings grew about 46% YoY. Free cash flow for full-year 2025 came in at $572.96M.
Base44, the no-code AI app builder Wix acquired, reached $100M in ARR within one year of founding and 9 months after the acquisition, then accelerated to around $150M ARR by May 2026. CEO Avishai Abrahami disclosed that Wix built “our own proprietary LLM that is now powering Wix Harmony,” giving the company “more control of AI inference costs as we scale the Harmony platform with little to no reliance on third party LLMs.” You can read the full quarterly results in Wix’s Q1 2026 SEC filing.
Why It Could Be A Zero
The balance sheet is the scariest part. Wix executed a $1.6B modified Dutch Auction tender offer, repurchasing about 17.5M shares at $92 each, roughly 30% of shares outstanding, funded in part by a $500M credit facility. The result: shareholders’ equity sits at negative $366M, and book value per share is -$2.45.
Add an Israeli shekel that strengthened enough to create a ~$64M operating expense headwind, ongoing Middle East war productivity friction, and integration risk on two AI acquisitions running simultaneously, and you have a real failure scenario.
The Asymmetric Setup
Wall Street has not given up. The analyst target price sits at $86.05, with 6 strong buys and 11 buys against 4 holds and 1 strong sell. Forward P/E is around 10, with a PEG of 0.13. Those are deep-value multiples for a growth software company, which is the whole point of Velasquez’s pitch.
I have watched Wix for years and viewed it as a steady SMB website tool. The Base44 acceleration and proprietary LLM change the story, for better or worse. If Wix Harmony monetization sticks and Base44 keeps compounding, today’s price will look like a gift. If the AI bet stalls while negative equity grinds, the warning Velasquez gave will not look dramatic at all. Buy Wix if you believe Abrahami can turn this AI roadmap into durable margin expansion. Pass if you cannot stomach a balance sheet this stretched.
And of course. Like so many software companies they’re being priced as if people will simply create their websites from Claude or Gemini without any further third party tools.
The trade is genuinely binary, which is exactly why it is worth a second look.
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