Rocket Lab Delivered 835% Returns in Five Years, Is It Still A Buy?

By Alex Sirois Published Jun 10, 9:42AM EDT

Quick Read

$1,000 invested in RKLB at its 2021 IPO grew to $9,354, an 835% return fueled by defense contracts and a $2.2 billion backlog.
RKLB carries a beta of 2.5 and burned $322 million in free cash flow in FY2025, making it a high-volatility bet rather than a core holding.
Rocket Lab is the only publicly tradable pure-play launch company, but Neutron's debut slipped to Q4 2026 after a stage-1 tank test failure.
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Rocket Lab Delivered 835% Returns in Five Years, Is It Still A Buy? — © 2022 NASA / Getty Images News via Getty Images

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) has just under five years of public trading history. Peter Beck’s small-launch pioneer went public via SPAC merger in August 2021, well short of a full decade. That five-year window happens to capture one of the more dramatic transformations in the aerospace sector.

When Rocket Lab debuted, it was a one-rocket story. The Electron small-lift vehicle was reliable but tiny, and the company was burning cash to build a bigger ride called Neutron. Five years later, the pitch is different. Rocket Lab now describes itself as an end-to-end space company spanning launch, satellite buses, and payloads, with a $2.20 billion backlog and 70+ contracted missions. The defense pivot has been the catalyst, headlined by an $816 million Space Development Agency award for 18 Tracking Layer satellites and a slot on the Golden Dome Space Based Interceptor program with Raytheon.

Execution has matched the narrative. Electron logged 21 successful missions in 2025 at a 100% success rate, and acquisitions of Mynaric, Motiv, and Geost expanded the stack. Neutron’s first flight slipped to Q4 2026 after a stage-1 tank test failure, but the contract pipeline kept compounding anyway.

A $1,000 Stake Became Nearly $10,000

1-Year Return

Initial Investment: $1,000
Current Value: $3,651
Total Return: 265.15%
S&P 500 (same period): $1,229 (22.91%)

5-Year Return (Since IPO, August 2021)

Initial Investment: $1,000
Current Value: $9,354
Total Return: 835.44%
Annualized Return: ~59%
S&P 500 (same period): $1,667 (66.7%)

Holding through that ride was not for the squeamish. Shares spent much of 2022 and 2023 underwater, and even the last 12 months produced a 52-week range of $25.24 to $151. The recent gains track tightly with the defense contract wins, 63.5% Q1 2026 revenue growth, and the SpaceX IPO filing pulling the entire sector higher.

I’d Buy It Here, But Not With Conviction

I’d put $1,000 into Rocket Lab today if I believed Neutron debuts on time, the defense backlog converts cleanly, and the market keeps paying a price-to-sales ratio above 100x for that growth profile. The bull case is real: there is no other publicly tradable pure-play launch company with this customer list.

But I’d avoid it if I needed the position to behave well in a drawdown. Rocket Lab still posts GAAP net losses and free cash flow of negative $321.8 million in FY2025, and the beta of 2.499 means any Neutron slip or SpaceX-related sector wobble hurts fast. Personally, I lean buyer at this level, but only as a small, high-volatility sleeve. Anyone sizing it like a core holding is underestimating how violent the next 30% move could be in either direction.

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About the Author Alex Sirois →

Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.

Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.

At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.