Julian Emanuel, chief equity derivatives and quantitative strategist at Evercore, just laid out one of the most aggressive Wall Street scenarios yet for the S&P 500. In a CNBC segment on June 16, 2026, Emanuel walked through a framework that puts his base case at 7,750 and his bull case at 9,000. The 9,000 number is the optimistic scenario, not the central call, but the logic behind it deserves attention because every traditional bull-market killer Emanuel can identify is either fading or still ahead in a friendly form.
The Bull-Market Endgame Checklist
Emanuel’s framework starts with the conditions that historically kill structural bull markets. “When you think about how bull markets, particularly tech-driven structural bull markets unfold, there are several elements that end bull markets. And to the negative it’s a recession. It’s a FED that’s going to be hiking rates. That is quickly going off the table.”
The Fed Funds target upper bound currently sits at 3.75%, down from a peak of 4.50% in September 2025, and has held steady at that level for roughly six months. The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread stands at a positive 0.40%, with no inversion across the full 12-month window. Recession warning lights are not currently flashing. Prediction markets currently assign only 13% odds of a recession by the end of 2026. That’s down from 36% in late March.
Two Headwinds Already Behind Us
Emanuel argues the market has already absorbed two punches that often trip up bull runs: rising oil and rising long-end yields. WTI crude now carries what he calls a “seven handle”, with prices sitting at $95.00 per barrel after retreating from a May peak near $112.09 (since Emanuel appeared on CNBC, they’ve fallen even lower to around $80 per barrel). The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, has parked near the top of its 12-month range at 4.42%. Stocks digested both moves on the way up.
That digestion shows in the tape. The S&P 500 ETF is up 10.69% year to date and 26.44% over the past year, closing at $754.83 on June 15. The VIX is at 16.20, sitting in the 27.9 percentile of its 12-month range. Fear has drained out.
The $8 Trillion FOMO Engine
What Emanuel sees ahead is the final ingredient of the melt-up: capital deployment. “The last element that ends bull markets is typically what we see a period of intense fomo driven by capital markets. And to us that’s still ahead.”
The fuel is sitting in money funds. “There’s 8 trillion in money market funds. And guess what? Interest rates, yields on those money market funds, we thought they may be rising over the last few weeks. That does not appear to be the case.” M2 money supply backs the liquidity picture, rising to $22.80 trillion as of April 1, 2026, ranking in the 90.9th percentile historically. Dry powder is abundant, and the opportunity cost of cash is no longer rising.
Emanuel also sees the public front-running professionals, citing recent IPO behavior: “The public tends to lead the professionals. There was a degree of skepticism around this IPO, but the public was fully enthused.” SpaceX shares are now up 10.3% again today. They’re trading for $212 per share, significantly above their $135 IPO price.
Earnings Are Doing the Heavy Lifting
The valuation argument hinges on profit growth outrunning multiple expansion. “The other difference is that earnings power is a lot greater than any of us thought it was going to be. So even though the market’s moved as much as it has, multiples are still not stretched.”
JPMorgan’s 2026 outlook reinforces the math, noting four consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth and consensus S&P 500 EPS growth estimates of 11% in 2025 and 13% in 2026, with Magnificent 7 earnings tracking 20.3% growth. You can review the full JPMorgan thesis on the firm’s market insights hub.
What to Watch
The bear case to Emanuel’s bull case is straightforward. Consumer sentiment sits at 49.8, below the recessionary threshold of 60, and the yield curve has flattened from 0.74% in February to current levels. Profit-taking in richly valued semiconductors could rattle headlines, though Emanuel’s framework suggests that capital rotates rather than exits. For investors, the takeaway is clear: 9,000 requires a chain of events to hit, but the macro setup that historically blocks that path looks largely cleared.
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