Live: Will Micron Crush Q3 Earnings Tonight After Tuesday’s 13% Selloff?

That wraps up our initial coverage of Micron’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Micron’s cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash climbed from $9.6 billion at the start of the fiscal year to more than $25 billion. Total cash and investments reached roughly $30.2 billion by quarter-end. Meanwhile, long-term debt fell from $14.0 billion to $5.1 billion.

It isn’t surprising that Micron is rapidly building one of the strongest balance sheets in the semiconductor industry, since the company reported $18.3 billion in free cash flow this quarter, nearly half of its total revenue of $37.4 billion for last year.

Buried deep in the product highlights was a line stating that Micron shipped its first 1-gamma DDR5 samples to a robotaxi customer.

Management may elaborate more on this development in tonight’s earnings call at 4:30 PM ET, but for now, it’s another reminder that the memory story increasingly extends beyond AI servers and data centers.

Autonomous vehicles are becoming another high-memory workload that could require significantly more DRAM and storage content per vehicle than traditional cars. It’s a tiny disclosure today, but it hints at where the next wave of memory demand could emerge.

A year ago, Micron generated just $9.3 billion in quarterly revenue. This quarter, adjusted free cash flow alone was $18.3 billion. Revenue reached $41.5 billion, while operating cash flow reached $25.4 billion.

Put differently, Micron generated about half of FY2025 revenue in a single quarter of free cash flow.

That’s the kind of cash generation investors typically associate with mature software monopolies. The AI memory shortage is now showing up directly in the cash flow statement.

One of the biggest surprises in Micron’s Q3 earnings release was what happened outside of the traditional AI narrative.

The Mobile and Client Business Unit generated $11.5 billion in revenue with an 87% gross margin and 86% operating margin. The Automotive and Embedded Business Unit posted a 79% gross margin and 75% operating margin.

Both of these business units saw operating profits more than 10x in just 1 year.

Heading into earnings, one of the major concerns was that AI-related HBM demand was masking weakness elsewhere in memory. Instead, Micron showed exceptional profitability across virtually every major business line.

Bear Case Validated or Busted?

Four bear concerns dominated Micron’s 13.18% Tuesday selloff:

• Gross margin peaking: BUSTED. GAAP gross margin expanded to 84.6% from 37.7% YoY, with Q4 guided to ~86%.
• Capex/oversupply: MIXED. Capex hit $7.83 billion, yet free cash flow reached $18.30 billion.
• Customer concentration: ADDRESSED. Multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements add durability; HBM4 qualification samples now ship to multiple end-customers.
• Valuation/guidance: BUSTED. Q4 guidance of $50.0 billion revenue and $31.00 EPS smashed estimates.

Bears will point to CEO Mehrotra’s May sale of 37,435 shares near $979.37, broad executive selling, and a $1.164 trillion market cap that prices in flawless execution.

But bulls would counter that supply remains tight beyond 2026, that NAND is emerging as a second AI engine, and that the 7th straight EPS beat validates Mehrotra’s credibility.

Micron’s product commentary suggests the company is already looking well beyond current-generation AI hardware.

Management disclosed that HBM4 is already in high-volume shipments for its lead customer platform, while HBM4E development is underway, with volume production expected in 2027.

That’s important because investors are increasingly asking what comes after today’s HBM boom.

The answer from Micron appears to be that the roadmap continues to advance, and customers are already preparing for the next generation of AI memory products.

Three years ago, Micron was posting negative gross margins. This quarter, Micron’s non-GAAP gross margin reached 84.9%, up from 74.9% last quarter and 39.0% a year ago.

One of the major bear arguments heading into earnings was that Micron’s 81% margin guidance was unsustainably high. Instead, the company delivered nearly 85% and guided to approximately 86% next quarter.

For now, the supply-constrained AI memory thesis continues to win, and Micron stock is up 10% after reporting earnings.

One of the biggest concerns around AI memory has been visibility, and Micron’s Q3 results addressed that concern directly. As a result, the stock is up 8% after reporting Q3 earnings.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said the company has executed multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements, adding that they should “significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance.”

That’s notable because investors have increasingly shifted their focus beyond the next quarter toward demand visibility in 2027 and 2028.

Management is essentially signaling that AI customers are willing to commit to memory supply years in advance rather than relying solely on spot-market demand.

Micron guided for approximately $50 billion in Q4 revenue, plus or minus $1 billion, alongside non-GAAP EPS of $31.00, plus or minus $1.00.

For context, Micron just delivered $41.46 billion in Q3 revenue and $25.11 in non-GAAP EPS. That implies another quarter of massive sequential growth.

Even more impressive, management expects gross margins to expand again to approximately 86%, up from an already extraordinary 84.9% in Q3.

The debate heading into earnings was whether margins had peaked. Micron’s guidance suggests they will continue getting stronger.

Micron just reported earnings, with shares initially up 3% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.82B expected
• Adjusted EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.71 expected

Quick read:

Micron delivered a monster beat, topping revenue expectations by 16% and earnings expectations by 21%.

The bigger story is the growth rate. Revenue soared 346% year over year and 74% sequentially, while EPS climbed 1,215% from a year ago, highlighting the continued strength of AI-driven memory demand heading into fiscal Q4.

The most interesting thing about the memory debate is that some of the world’s top CEOs are bullish on memory and the AI infrastructure buildout.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized the importance of memory, saying that “the future of artificial intelligence will be shaped as much by memory as by computing power.” He has also argued that “without the HBM memory, there is no AI supercomputer.”

Michael Dell has outlined a similar view. In discussing AI infrastructure, Dell estimated memory demand could increase roughly 625-fold over time:

“From 80 gig to 2 terabytes is 25 times more memory per accelerator. And in that timeframe, you’ll have about 25 times more accelerators. So 25 times 25 is 625 times.”

The implication is that memory demand is growing because each new generation of AI hardware requires dramatically more memory.

Supply remains the other side of the equation. Huang has said, “Go ahead and build memory fabs; however much capacity you add, NVIDIA will consume it.”

Elon Musk has argued that planned U.S. memory expansion is “a tiny fraction of the memory that’s needed” and “not enough to meet the demand that is anticipated.”

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra recently said, “We see that tightness continuing into 2027,” while SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won suggested HBM shortages could persist until 2030.

What stands out is that many of the industry’s most influential leaders are describing a future where memory remains one of the primary bottlenecks in AI infrastructure for years to come.

For most of the past year, investors focused on whether AI demand could drive Micron’s earnings higher. The new debate is about duration.

HBM demand is sold out, pricing remains strong, and customers continue spending aggressively. Investors are increasingly looking for evidence that today’s growth can extend into 2028 and beyond.

If management can show that memory demand, pricing power, and capacity expansion support another leg of growth after 2027, the AI bull case gets stronger. If growth begins to look more cyclical, investors may become less willing to pay a premium multiple for the stock.

Micron has built a habit of beating expectations, but tonight’s report may be judged on a different standard.

Wall Street expects another strong quarter. The bigger question is whether management can extend visibility into 2027 and 2028.

Investors already know AI demand is booming and HBM supply is tight. What they want to know now is how long those conditions can last.

With the stock up more than 700% over the past year and trading near record highs, the market is wondering how many years that benefit can continue.

With the call set for 4:30 PM ET, here are some of the top questions analysts will likely be wondering about.

Top 5 Analyst Questions

• Is HBM allocation fully sold through calendar 2027, and what’s the HBM4 ramp cadence?
• Can gross margin hold above 81% into Q4, or does mix normalize?
• How many Strategic Customer Agreements are signed beyond the first five-year deal?
• With Q2 capex at $6.39B, what’s the FY27 capex envelope?
• Any hyperscaler inventory digestion signals?

Buzzwords to Listen For

• “Strategic asset,” “tight beyond 2026,” “significant records,” HBM4 qualification, NAND bit growth.

Red Flags

• Q4 revenue guide below $36B
• Margin softening
• Vague 2027 commentary
• Rising DRAM inventory days
• Hedged language on Nvidia qualification timing

Any of those could amplify the 13.18% drop Micron saw on Tuesday.

Bull Case

• Micron (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) is fulfilling only 50% to two-thirds of key customer demand, with HBM4 already shipping into NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) NVIDIA Vera Rubin.
• CFO Mark Murphy says supply tightness is a “durable” factor extending beyond 2026.
• A 30% dividend hike and record $6.90B free cash flow signal management conviction.

Bear Case

• CEO Sanjay Mehrotra disposed of 37,435 shares on May 29, 2026 between $942.14 and $979.37.
• Options IV sits at the 98th percentile, with r/options flagging “insanely abnormal panic”.
• Last quarter’s +31.04% beat still produced a -19.99% one-week drawdown.
• At a $1.12T market cap, perfection is priced in.

Keep an eye on the stock after the 4 p.m. ET release.

We’re in the quiet part of earnings season, but there’s a big announcement tonight right after the 4 p.m. closing bell. Micron (MU) announces its Q3 earnings, and they’ll shape whether semiconductor indexes continue selling off tomorrow or rebound in the weeks ahead. Let’s look at three key figures that will decide whether Micron shares rise or fall tomorrow. 

1) Gross Margins 

Investors expect Micron to report gross margins of 81.7% this quarter. However, expectations ramp even higher in Q4, all the way to 83.7%. That’s an astounding figure (past memory cycles peaked at around 60% gross margins), and shows how rabid memory demand is. 

Yet, if margins fall or Micron’s guidance is below expectations, investors will fret we’re already reaching the ‘top of the cycle’ and its likely shares will fall tomorrow. Watch gross margins closely, as its the number one figure studied by Wall Street and hedge funds when assessing how long this memory cycle can last.

2) Forward Revenue

Wall Street expects revenue of $35.8 billion this quarter and $43.5 billion next quarter. Micron will have to beat both figures (and likely by a sound margin), but next quarter matters more. 

3) Forward Demand

Micron has said customers are only getting 50% to 67% of requested supply in past earnings calls and executive media appearances. Is there any updates to this figure? Wall Street will also carefully study any commentary on demand into 2027 and details on agreements with customers like Anthropic.

Back in 2024, NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings felt like the “Super Bowl” of the investing world. CNBC would have countdown clocks throughout the day headed into its earnings.

More importantly, NVIDIA’s earnings shaped the direction of the entire stock market. A big earnings beat would propel an entire group of companies forward. A miss would lead to broad losses across not just technology stocks, but stocks in general.

Well, it certainly feels like Micron (MU) has surpassed NVIDIA to become the market’s “story stock” in 2026.

A big overnight drop in memory stocks in Korea led to the Nasdaq down 3% in premarket trading yesterday. In addition, the market caps of the ‘big three’ memory companies (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) all now exceed $1 trillion.

Most importantly, it feels like Micron must achieve the ‘impossible’ tonight. Margins need to stay elevated, but if they’re too elevated that could lead to broader selling on concerns their pricing is hurting the overall AI trade.

And if Micron shows any weakness in forward guidance, that will likely lead to a broad sell-off across the entire semiconductor industry that now makes up 19% of the S&P 500.

No matter how you slice it, these are massive earnings tonight. With the Van Eck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) down another 2% today after a 6% drop yesterday, Micron’s earnings will likely shape the next leg of the overall semiconductor trade.

HBM has been the headline driver of Micron’s rally, but NAND may be emerging as a second AI growth engine.

As AI models become more agentic and memory-intensive, demand for high-performance data center storage is rising alongside demand for memory. Micron is already ramping its latest NAND products and expects NAND bit shipments to grow roughly 20% this year.

For investors focused on tonight’s earnings call, one thing to watch is whether management spends more time discussing storage demand. A broader AI story beyond HBM could strengthen the argument that Micron’s growth runway extends well beyond the current cycle.

Most investors focus on Micron’s HBM business, but another trend could become increasingly important: Strategic Customer Agreements, or SCAs.

These long-term supply contracts are designed to give customers guaranteed access to memory while providing Micron with better visibility into future demand.

Management signed its first five-year SCA last quarter and said discussions are underway with additional customers across multiple end markets.

If adoption continues to grow, SCAs could help reduce Micron’s historical exposure to memory-cycle volatility and make future revenue streams more predictable.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has delivered four consecutive EPS beats at Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), with surprise magnitudes of 18.94%, 5.94%, 21.33%, and 39.74%.

More importantly, actual results have crushed management’s own prior guidance each quarter. Last cycle, Micron guided revenue of $18.70B and delivered $23.86B, while EPS guided at $8.42 printed $12.20.

Mehrotra’s tone has stayed uniformly positive across all four reports, framing memory as a “strategic asset”. CFO Mark Murphy reinforced that conditions should “remain tight beyond 2026”.

That credibility underpins Polymarket’s 96% beat probability for tonight. The pattern also points to aggressive sandbagging, suggesting management’s $33.5B revenue and $19.15 EPS guide could once again prove a floor rather than a ceiling.

Everyone expects Micron to beat earnings tonight. The bigger question is what management says about margins and demand heading into fiscal 2027.

The AI story is well understood at this point. HBM demand remains strong, supply is tight, and hyperscalers continue spending aggressively. What’s less clear is whether Micron can maintain the extraordinary profitability investors have become accustomed to over the last few quarters.

Micron guided for roughly 81% gross margins in Q3. Investors are looking for management to defend that level and extend visibility into 2027. If margins show signs of pressure, investors may begin to question how much of today’s earnings power is sustainable, especially given the stock’s recent move to over $1 trillion in market cap.

Peer Scorecard: 3-for-3 on Beats

Three AI-adjacent memory and storage peers have recently reported revenue and earnings beats.

• NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) posted $81.61B in revenue (+85.2% YoY) and beat EPS by 5.42%.
• Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) delivered a record 47.0% non-GAAP gross margin and beat by 17.13%.
• Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) crossed 50% gross margin for the first time, beating by 13.71%.

Common threads: These businesses all saw hyperscaler-driven demand, margin expansion, and guidance increases, with Seagate and Western Digital hiking dividends.

Both storage names fell sharply today, with Seagate down 7% and Western Digital down 7.64%, mirroring Micron’s 13% pre-earnings drop.

For Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) peer fundamentals support the AI memory thesis, but with management guiding for $33.5B revenue and ~81% gross margin, the bar is unusually elevated heading into earnings.

Tonight’s headline numbers from Micron (NASDAQ:MU) will almost certainly clear the bar. Polymarket pegs a 96.1% odds of an earnings beat, and management has guided conservatively all cycle, guiding for revenue of $18.70 billion last quarter, then delivering $23.86 billion.

The real swing factor is the Q4 outlook. Bullish guidance would push revenue above roughly $36 billion, hold gross margin at/above 81%, and confirm HBM allocation sold into calendar 2027.

On the other hand, bearish guidance would look like flat sequential revenue heading into Q4, any hint of margin compression, or cautious hyperscaler inventory commentary.

After a 31.04% surprise last quarter still produced a -19.99% one-week drop, the lesson is clear that guidance, rather than the earnings beat, will drive the stock’s reaction.

Micron’s Q3 earnings report tonight is likely to come down to two things: management’s outlook for fiscal 2026 and what CEO Sanjay Mehrotra says about demand heading into 2027.

Investors already know AI is driving strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM). The bigger question is how long that demand can support today’s pricing and profitability.

If Mehrotra extends HBM visibility into 2027 and reinforces the company’s roughly 81% gross margin outlook, it would strengthen the case that the AI memory boom still has room to run.

If either of those pillars starts to weaken, investors may begin questioning how sustainable today’s earnings power really is. After all, Micron shares have climbed more than 700% over the past year, leaving little room for disappointment.

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Micron’s Q3 earnings. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Micron’s earnings to be released shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.