SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) went public on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026 in a roughly $75 billion offering, ran to a peak of $225.64 on June 16, then gave back about 18% on the week to land near $147 to $148 by June 23 to 26. As of this morning SpaceX is trading at $155.
If you watched the parabola from the sidelines and now feel like you missed the move, the data says you missed a specific move, the IPO pop, and that one is not coming back. What you can still get is a cheaper entry into the same conglomerate, and there is one non-sentiment reason that matters.
The mechanical buyer waiting in the wings
Anticipated Nasdaq-100 inclusion is the cleanest reason to own SPCX at this price. When a name enters the index, every fund tracking it has to buy proportional shares on a defined rebalancing schedule. This is regardless of whether portfolio managers like the valuation.
That is forced demand, and SpaceX’s market capitalization at $2 trillion, clears the size bar with room to spare. Treat inclusion as a probability-weighted catalyst rather than a scheduled date. But the mechanics are real, and they create a known buyer in a stock currently dominated by emotional retail flow.
Why the pullback can be a good entry
The IPO priced at $135, surged above $200, and has since been repriced inside a tight band near $150.
SpaceX is the dominant launch provider. It has launched more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit each year since 2023 with a Falcon mission success rate over 99%, plus Starlink’s approximately 9,600 satellites serving customers across 164 countries, territories, and other markets, plus the xAI acquisition in early 2026 that bolted an AI franchise onto the platform.
You are buying that mix today below where many of the post-IPO crowd was bidding. That said, you should only expect gains in the long term since SPCX can still sell off more from here.
The risks that deserve real weight
The bear case carries real weight. Q1 2026 showed revenue near $4.7 billion but an operating loss, meaning the cash engine still consumes capital even at this scale. There is no dividend, so total return depends entirely on multiple expansion and execution.
Analyst price targets span $115 on the sell side to $165 on the bull case, a 50-point spread that captures genuine valuation disagreement between a conservative $780 billion framing and the roughly $2 trillion market cap implied today.
Reddit’s weekly sentiment score sits at 34.52, bearish, and the top-engagement post reads “SpaceX stock tumbles 16.4%, shaving off most IPO gains since debut”. The stock is also a newly public name still in volatile price discovery, with lock-up expirations ahead that could deliver real supply shocks.
What you are buying after the IPO pop
You missed the IPO pop, which was a one-time event and is over. What remains is a launch, connectivity, and AI platform trading well below its post-IPO peak, with a credible mechanical catalyst in possible Nasdaq-100 inclusion and an analyst consensus target of $187.80 against the current $155. For a retirement-focused investor, position sizing matters: build the position in tranches over several months, sized so a double-digit drawdown would not change your long-term retirement plan.
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