CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) and Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) both reported first quarter results that reshape how investors should think about AI cloud infrastructure. CoreWeave leaned into raw US scale, banking a $99.4 billion backlog. Nebius, run out of the Netherlands, delivered +841% YoY AI Cloud growth on a much smaller base while pushing aggressively into US soil.
Backlogs Carry CoreWeave. Margins Carry Nebius.
CoreWeave posted $2.078 billion in revenue, up 111.7%, edging past estimates. That top line rests on a fresh $21 billion Meta commitment plus multi-year Anthropic and OpenAI work. CEO Michael Intrator called it “the strongest bookings quarter in CoreWeave’s history”. The catch: a $740 million net loss, $7.695 billion in quarterly capex, and interest expense doubling to $536 million. That growth carries a real cost.
Nebius told a different story. Revenue of $399 million missed the $593.19 million consensus, yet the AI Cloud unit ran at a 45% adjusted EBITDA margin, and cost of revenue collapsed from 49% to 26%. Arkady Volozh framed it as building “the infrastructure, tools, and capabilities for where it will be tomorrow.” That premium posture is the point.
US Powerhouse Versus European Full Stack Operator
| Lens | CoreWeave | Nebius |
| Active Power | 1+ GW | 800MW to 1GW target |
| Backlog / RPO | $99.4B backlog | $33.59B RPO |
| Core Bet | Inference at hyperscaler scale | Full stack cloud plus subsidiaries |
| Key Vulnerability | $50.814 billion in liabilities | Meta concentration, $10.04B convertible debt |
CoreWeave sits “between the models and the silicon”, tightening around inference on NVIDIA GB200 systems. Nebius spreads wider, running Avride robodelivery (174,000+ deliveries), TripleTen education, and the ClickHouse stake that produced a $780.60M non-cash gain. That optionality is real, but it complicates the story.
The Next Test Is Cash Burn Discipline
I want to see whether CoreWeave can convert that $99.4 billion backlog without perpetually negative free cash flow (-$4.711 billion in Q1). For Nebius, the tell is whether the $3.0B to $3.4B 2026 revenue guide holds after a Q1 miss, and whether Pennsylvania and Missouri AI factories light up on schedule. Both companies pulled in $2 billion NVIDIA equity checks, a signal I read as supply chain insurance more than validation.
Why I Lean CoreWeave for Scale, Nebius for Upside
For me, CoreWeave looks like the sturdier bet on raw US AI capacity. The stock is down 38.95% over the past year to $99.54, and it trades at roughly 8x sales versus Nebius near 76x. If you want defensive exposure to hyperscaler AI spend, CoreWeave’s US pipeline and Meta anchor look durable. If you prefer sharper upside variance and can stomach a 399.13% one-year run and premium valuation, Nebius fits a growth-believer profile. Both names carry meaningful risk if AI capex signals wobble into the back half of 2026.
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