After a punishing year for shareholders, Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) finally looks interesting again. Shares closed at $41.05 on June 30, 2026, sitting a hair above the 52-week low of $40. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Nike is $51.21, implying 24.76% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy with a 90% confidence level.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $41.05 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $51.21 |
| Upside | 24.76% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
A Brutal Year, Then a Tariff Windfall
Nike has been one of the worst large-cap stories of the past 12 months. Shares are down 40.62% over one year, 34.56% year to date, and 10.41% in the past month alone. The stock peaked near $76.97 in August 2025 before declining to the current $41 level.
The June 30, 2026 Q1 FY27 report offered a rare bright spot. Revenue landed at $10.97B against a $10.85B consensus, and diluted EPS came in at $0.72 against a $0.1273 estimate. That marked the seventh consecutive EPS beat, though the number was inflated by a $986 million one-time IEEPA tariff recovery.
Underneath the headline, Greater China revenue fell 12%, Converse tumbled 32%, and NIKE Direct was down 7%. CEO Elliott Hill has been buying shares on the open market.
The Case for $65 and Higher
Bulls have real ammunition. Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” strategy is showing early wins in wholesale, which grew 4% in Q1 FY27, and North America revenue rose 3%. Gross margin hit 49.2% in the latest quarter, and cost discipline is showing. Nike also has an $18 billion four-year buyback authorization and just extended a 24-year dividend growth streak.
Our bull case scenario points to $65.78 by July 2027, a 60.24% return. If Greater China stabilizes, Converse finds a floor, and the David Denton CFO transition reinforces margin discipline, that number looks achievable.
What Could Go Wrong
The bear case is well-telegraphed. KeyBanc’s Ashley Owens flagged slower-than-expected sportswear recovery and disruptor brand pressure. Technical analysts point to a $35 downside target if support breaks. Our bear case still puts the stock at $46.65 in a year, reflecting how much bad news is already priced in.
Skeptics note that the Q1 FY27 EPS blowout was largely a tariff refund. Underlying revenue still fell 1.13%, and NIKE Direct weakness suggests brand momentum has faded. Bulls would argue the wholesale rebalancing was intentional and that near-term margin pain funds a healthier long-term marketplace.
Nike Price Prediction 2026-2030
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $51.21 and buy rating reflect a straightforward setup: sentiment is washed out, the balance sheet is fortress-grade, and management is buying shares personally.
The bull thesis rests on Hill’s turnaround gaining traction in North America wholesale over the next two quarters. The thesis weakens materially if Greater China revenue declines accelerate past 15%. With 90% model confidence and the stock trading a dollar off its 52-week low, the risk/reward favors patient buyers.
Looking ahead, here is where our model projects Nike could trade, assuming Win Now execution progresses and margins normalize toward historical averages.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $51.21 |
| 2027 | $58.00 |
| 2028 | $64.50 |
| 2029 | $71.00 |
| 2030 | $78.84 |
These projections assume Nike continues executing on Win Now and Greater China stabilizes by fiscal 2028. Significant upside or downside could result from tariff policy shifts and disruptor brand competition.
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