Bitcoin Has Fallen 3 Straight Quarters. The Historic Pattern Points to a Potential Rebound

Bitcoin’s slide has tested even the most patient bulls, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee recently appeared on CNBC on Monday morning to argue that Bitcoin’s long-term story remains intact. His viewpoint is that Bitcoin has fallen for three consecutive quarters and has never, in its history, posted four straight quarterly declines. With the token trading around $61,577 on July 6, 2026, Lee frames the pullback as a cyclical reset within a longer arc rather than a structural breakdown.

Bitcoin Just Logged Three Straight Losing Quarters

Bitcoin is down 27.57% year-to-date and off 41.98% over the past year, having started 2026 near $87,497 after touching $109,217 last July. The CNBC segment referenced a roughly 60% drawdown from the highs and pegged Bitcoin at around 62,800 after it bottomed near 58,000 earlier in the pullback.

Altcoins tell a similar story. Ether is down 40.07% year-to-date, and Solana is down 34.7%. Both, however, have rebounded sharply in the past month, with SOL up 30.76% and ETH up 13.34% over the trailing 30 days, hinting at the kind of turn Lee has been waiting for.

Tom Lee: Bitcoin Has Never Fallen Four Straight Quarters

On the CNBC interview, Lee laid out the case: “We’ve had three consecutive quarterly declines. It’s never been down four consecutive quarters. I do think there’s been a big leverage reset. And sentiment is negative. But it’s not as if the crypto sort of use cases have actually been quashed.”

He walked through Bitcoin’s headwinds one by one: monetary policy expectations swung from two rate cuts priced in to two hikes, then back toward neutral; regulatory clarity legislation stalled; and AI enthusiasm temporarily overshadowed crypto, though AI will still require crypto infrastructure in the long term.

According to FRED, the Fed funds target upper bound sits at 3.75%, down from 4.5% last September after three 25 basis point cuts between late October and December 2025, and has been held steady for seven months. Liquidity is expanding beneath the surface, with the M2 money supply reaching $23.05 trillion in May 2026, up from $22.02 trillion in July 2025.

Why Lee Thinks Crypto’s Long-Term Bull Case Is Still Alive

Lee’s argument leans on utility: “There’s still a lot of innovation coming both to the financial markets and also how AI will end up using crypto. So to me, Bitcoin’s been painful… three quarters down… it’s terrible, but I don’t think it’s going to be a story that’s broken. It’s kind of normal course decline.”

He pointed to tokenization and prediction markets as evidence that crypto’s use cases keep widening: “When AI agents are very wealthy and powerful, humans are going to want to have some control over that. And you need decentralized systems.”

What Has to Happen for Bitcoin to Rebound

Recent price action gives the bullish case something to work with. Bitcoin is up 5.34% over the past week and 4.15% over the past month, and remains higher by 87.12% over five years and by 9,405.38% over 10 years. Whether Q3 2026 breaks Lee’s four-quarter streak will hinge on the Fed’s next signal, the fate of stalled crypto legislation, and whether AI narratives begin pulling capital back toward on-chain infrastructure rather than away from it. Lee is betting the answer to all three trends will be in his favor before the calendar year closes.

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