The trillion-dollar space economy has stopped being a science-fiction talking point. Instead, it’s starting to show up in earnings reports, ETF flows, and defense budgets.
On the July 15 episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, The Growth of the Space Industry, host Allison Nathan told listeners the sector sits at about $625 billion today and that hitting the trillion-dollar mark is “a matter of when, not if.” The consensus timing she cited: the mid-2030s or 2040s, with falling launch costs doing most of the heavy lifting.
Her framing of the ownership shift is the more investable insight.
“About 80% today is driven by commercial companies. A generation ago, it was 80% government,” Nathan said, describing “a flywheel effect of attracting more investment and development.” A guest on the show walked through what that commercial layer already looks like in everyday life.
iPhone SOS functions in remote locations, Starlink delivering “Wi-Fi during your flight at basically real-time speeds that you would get over broadband internet,” and more frequently refreshed Google Maps imagery from earth-observation constellations. Further out, the guest pointed to space stations, a lunar base, and “ultimately making humanity multi-planetary.”
How Investors Are Playing the Theme
The cleanest thematic wrapper is the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO), which holds 47 equity positions spanning satellite communications, launch, earth observation, and aerospace primes. Net assets stand at $749.3 million, with top weights in Planet Labs (6.16%), Viasat (5.90%), Globalstar (5.28%), Sirius XM (5.05%), and Rocket Lab (5.02%).
UFO is up 18.54% year to date and 52.71% over the past year, though the last month has been rough, with the fund down 13.43% as high-beta space names sold off. Over five years, the ETF has returned 70.72%. For readers who want the flywheel exposure without the single-stock volatility of pre-revenue satellite operators, that basket is the natural starting point. Nathan’s point about commercial capture also lines up with the broader macro backdrop: manufacturing value added grew 1.3% in Q1 2026, reversing a -2.6% trough in Q1 2025, while professional and technical services (where R&D and engineering sit) added $148.9 billion year over year.
Pure-Play Names Behind the Trend
The direct-to-device broadband thesis Nathan referenced runs straight through AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS).
The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $14.7 million, up 1,952% year over year. It reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, while maintaining its target of approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end. CEO Abel Avellan told investors AST is “accelerating manufacturing, regulatory progress, commercial partnerships, and government programs,” supported by approximately $3.5 billion in cash and partnerships with nearly 60 mobile network operators covering more than 3 billion subscribers. Investors can review the full disclosure in AST’s Form 8-K filings on SEC.gov.
On the launch and defense side, Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ: FLY | FLY Price Prediction) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $80.88 million, up 44.8% year over year, and exceeded analyst consensus by 7.94%. CEO Jason Kim highlighted the company’s selection to support the U.S. Space Force’s Golden Dome space-based interceptor program and a $109 million engineering change proposal under the FORGE Enterprise OPIR Services contract. Firefly reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $420 million to $450 million.
For a broader shortlist of AI-connected infrastructure names benefiting from these same tailwinds, our team’s 7 Stocks Powering the AI Boom (That Aren’t Chipmakers) research report is a useful cross-reference, since satellite and edge-compute buildouts are increasingly bundled with data-center demand.
What to Watch Next
Nathan’s central variable is launch cost. Every step down the cost-per-kilogram curve widens the addressable market for satellite operators, imaging companies, and eventually lunar logistics. Keep an eye on cadence at Rocket Lab and Firefly, BlueBird deployment milestones at AST, and whether the recent one-month drawdown in UFO marks a reset or the start of a longer digestion phase. If the guest is right that the transformation is “absolutely remarkable” and still early, pullbacks in the basket will look very different in the rearview mirror than they do on the tape today.
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