Live: Will United Airlines Crush Q2 Earnings Tonight After the Market Closes?

That wraps up our initial coverage of UAL’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Check out management’s earnings call at 10:30 AM EST tomorrow, July 16, for more updates.

Shares slipped roughly 4% after hours despite United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) beating on both lines: adjusted EPS of $1.99 versus $1.8498 expected and revenue of $17.67 billion.

The reaction fits UAL’s post-beat pattern. Following Q1 2026’s 8.93% beat, shares still fell -5.58%. Q3 2025’s beat produced a -5.63% drop. The average day-of move on beats sits at -1.8%.

The market is fixating on the Q3 and FY 2026 EPS guidance coming in below analyst expectations, net income falling -17.27%, and free cash flow collapsing -65.38%. With shares up 35.32% over the past year, the market may have already priced in a big beat.

United’s 16% second-quarter revenue growth was driven by several of its highest-value businesses expanding at double-digit rates.

Premium revenue increased 16% year over year, while Basic Economy and loyalty revenue each grew 11%. Cargo delivered the strongest increase at 23%, and contracted business revenue climbed 27% as corporate travel remained resilient.

Operational performance also improved. United posted its best second-quarter systemwide on-time departure rate since 2021, while Newark delivered its best-ever Q2 result.

Starlink is now installed on 450 aircraft, including United’s first widebody installation, with nearly 1,000 aircraft expected to offer the service by year-end.

United Airlines raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00 to $11.00, even as it expects nearly $6 billion in additional 2026 fuel costs compared with its assumptions at the beginning of the year.

Fuel expense climbed $2.3 billion, or 84%, year over year during Q2. United recovered approximately half of that increase during the quarter and expects to recover 80% to 90% by Q3 and nearly all of it by Q4.

The recovery reflects strong pricing power, with yields rising 12% during the quarter. United’s ability to raise fares and offset the fuel shock helps explain why management increased the bottom end of its full-year earnings range despite the enormous cost increase.

United Airlines just reported second-quarter earnings, with shares initially down 3% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $17.7 billion vs. $17.6 billion expected
• Adjusted EPS: $1.99 vs. $1.87 expected

Guidance:

Full-year adjusted EPS: $9.00 to $11.00, raised from the prior $7.00 to $11.00 range

Quick Read:

United beat expectations on both revenue and earnings, while raising the bottom end of its full-year outlook by $2 per share.

The airline also secured $3.7 billion in additional liquidity to protect against geopolitical uncertainty and oil-price spikes, while expanding Starlink to 450 aircraft and targeting nearly 1,000 by year-end.

United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) trades at $120.67 with Polymarket odds at 97% for a beat, but four wildcards remain unpriced.

First, CEO Scott Kirby sold 48,303 shares at $121.30 on June 15, an unusual pre-earnings move.

Second, the full-chain put/call ratio sits at 1.6, with the July 24 expiry spiking to 6.06, signaling heavy hedging against the crowd.

Third, ratification risk lingers on the tentative deal covering 30,000 flight attendants.

Fourth, history warns: UAL’s average day-of reaction after beats is -2.25%, and last quarter’s 8.93% surprise still triggered a -5.58% drop.

The Guidance That Matters Most Tonight

Wall Street’s attention shifts quickly from Q2 results to United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) Q3 and full-year outlook. Investors want a fresh Q3 EPS guide, an updated FY26 EPS range (currently $7 to $11), fuel assumptions, and capacity plans beyond the 5-point cut already announced.

CFO Michael Leskinen framed recovery in phases: 70% to 80% fuel recapture in Q3 and 85% to 100% by Q4. Any narrowing toward the upper half ($9 to $11) would signal fuel relief. Management has skewed conservative, beating EPS by 8.93% in Q1 2026, 5.41% in Q4 2025, and 3.98% in Q3 2025.

Bullish: Q3 EPS above Street, premium and loyalty growth sustained double digits, capacity restored.

Bearish: FY26 EPS cut below the $7 floor, further capacity trims, or fuel recovery slipping behind schedule.

United wants to keep expanding, but the FAA has placed limits on flight growth at three of its most important hubs: Newark, Chicago O’Hare, and San Francisco.

Those constraints could make it harder for United to deploy new aircraft profitably just as its delivery schedule begins accelerating.

Competition is also getting tougher. American Airlines and Southwest are improving their revenue strategies, while Delta plans to expand at Los Angeles and across the Asia-Pacific market, where United is currently the largest U.S. carrier. That threatens the premium customers and international growth that have powered United’s post-pandemic recovery.

Investors will be looking for evidence that United can grow earnings despite hub restrictions, rising labor costs, heavy capital spending, and stronger competition from the other major U.S. airlines.

United Airlines enters tonight’s report with one major tailwind: jet fuel prices have fallen from roughly $4 per gallon during the Iran crisis to below $3 on the U.S. spot market.

Because fuel expenses flow through airline results with a delay, the largest benefit may appear in United’s third-quarter guidance rather than its reported Q2 numbers.

Demand also remains strong. Airlines have successfully raised fares, premium travel continues to outperform, and the collapse of Spirit Airlines removed roughly 2% of U.S. capacity ahead of the summer season. That combination could allow United to preserve pricing even as its largest variable cost declines.

The key question is whether those improving conditions give management enough confidence to reaffirm its full-year adjusted EPS range of $7.00 to $11.00. A strong outlook would signal that United’s fuel recovery is arriving on schedule. Cautious guidance would suggest higher labor costs and operational pressures are absorbing more of the benefit.

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of United Airlines’ earnings.

Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect United Airlines’ earnings to be released shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.