In markets, the bigger they arrive, the harder they fall. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) has already shed a staggering amount of paper wealth since its post-IPO peak, with Hedgeye estimating a market value decay of roughly $47 billion per day from the top, almost 22 times the fate of Rivian Auto (Nasdaq: RIVN). Yet the setup for August looks even uglier than the stock action we just lived through.
The stock closed at $115.26 on July 22, down about 25% in a single month and 6.7% on the most recent trading day alone. I think that’s just the beginning.
The Bull Case I Understand but Reject
The bull case is not short on ammunition. SpaceX launches more than 80% of the world’s payload mass to orbit each year, operates roughly 9,600 Starlink satellites across 164 countries, and now carries another AI-adjacent dimension with xAI pulled deeper into the broader Musk ecosystem.
Why I’m Betting Against SPCX
The lockup cliff is the real story. Management set August 4 as its first earnings report, which would trigger a major lockup expiration. Reddit’s most-upvoted SPCX thread this month, with 1,309 upvotes, put the concern bluntly: “SPCX first major unlock is bigger than the entire IPO float.” Every insider on the roster, from Elon Musk to SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell to CFO Bret Johnsen, last transacted on June 11, 2026. That puts a major supply event directly in front of the stock.
Options traders are already positioned. The November expiration carries a put/call ratio of 3.03, and March 2027 sits at an eye-watering 16.13. Polymarket assigned a 96.5% probability to SPCX finishing down on July 22, which it did, and only a 20% chance of closing above $130 by month-end.
The moat narrative is taking water. Reddit sentiment collapsed to a Very Bearish score of 12 after competition heated up. Japan landed a reusable rocket prototype, with one widely shared post lamenting: “Had SPCX in my watchlist at $180 with competition is years away as the core thesis then Japan landed a rocket this weekend.”
Catalysts and the Bottom Line
Investors will be watching August 4, but the print may not be the main event. Earnings could matter less than the wave of newly tradable shares hitting a market that just absorbed a 9.22% weekly drop on a constrained float. I would reconsider only if insiders publicly extend the lockup or if Starship delivers a decisive commercial breakthrough before the earnings report.
My conviction is high. The combination of incoming supply, bearish options skew, and eroding sentiment does not set up well for a near-term bounce. Legacy aerospace and satellite operators offer cleaner floats and lower expectations by comparison.
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