Space names are under heavy pressure Tuesday morning as a broad-based sector selloff swamps positive company-specific news. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) shares are down 3% to $109.96, extending a slide that now runs 30% since the June 12 IPO. Plus, SpaceX’s peers are sliding harder despite fresh catalysts.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is down 9% to $60.63, reversing Monday’s gain. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are down 7% to $54.09. The Procure Space ETF is off 2% to $43.03, indicating that the weakness is theme-wide.
The pain is arriving in the same session six members of Congress disclosed SpaceX purchases, an unusual buying signal against a red tape. Those positions are already underwater as SpaceX stock has traded below its $135 IPO price for eight straight sessions.
SpaceX Overhang Drags the Sector
Sentiment on SpaceX stock has soured on valuation concerns and a reported first lockup expiration around August 6, which could unlock insider selling. Options positioning reflects that caution: the full-chain put/call ratio sits at 1.07, with the September 18 expiration at 5.52.
Six representatives disclosed SpaceX purchases totaling $182,000 to $480,000 combined, five Republicans and one Democrat, including Reps. Lisa McClain, John James, Daniel Meuser, William Timmons, John McGuire, and Gilbert Cisneros. Several sit on committees touching SpaceX’s military contracts or Starlink. A partial congressional stock-trading ban passed the House last week but isn’t expected to clear the Senate.
The prediction markets are leaning bearish on SpaceX today. Polymarket assigns a 56% probability of a lower close, and the crowd assigns only a 54% probability of the stock holding above $110 into month-end.
Good News Isn’t Helping Peers
Rocket Lab announced its largest contract ever on Monday, a $266 million U.S. Space Force award covering 12 suborbital launches with an option for six more, tied to missile defense and a new Kodiak, Alaska launchpad. Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating with a $130 price target on RKLB stock. Rocket Lab’s Q1 FY2026 revenue hit a record $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year (YoY), with a $2.2 billion backlog.
Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck stated that the company has been “selected to support the Department of War’s Space Based Interceptor program under Golden Dome for America in partnership with Raytheon.” That partner is Raytheon, a unit of RTX (NYSE:RTX). RTX stock is holding up well, as it’s up 20.5% year to date (YTD), a clear contrast to the pure-play space names.
Rocket Lab’s pending $8 billion all-stock acquisition of Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) adds IoT, direct-to-device, and L-band spectrum. Iridium shares are down around 3% to $44.45, and the deal is expected to close mid-2027.
AST SpaceMobile plans to launch BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 on August 5 from Cape Canaveral, following June’s successful BlueBird 8-10 launch. The new satellites offer nearly double the peak download speeds and position AST SpaceMobile for beta services later this year. There’s an irony worth noting: AST SpaceMobile relies on SpaceX for launch even as SpaceX drags the sector lower.
The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) has no direct SpaceX exposure, but the ETF is still trading lower. It holds Rocket Lab at 5% of net assets and AST SpaceMobile at 3.5%, so the fund’s concentration in beaten-down names is worth noting here.
What to Watch
The next setup is calendar-driven. The reported SpaceX lockup date around August 6 could trigger more supply, though a clean pass may relieve the overhang. AST SpaceMobile’s Falcon 9 launch on August 5 is a hard checkpoint, and Rocket Lab’s Neutron debut is targeted for Q4 2026.
The bullish case rests on Rocket Lab’s backlog, real government wins, and AST SpaceMobile’s satellite cadence. Meanwhile, the bearish case highlights lockup mechanics, stretched valuations, and thematic ETF selling that pulls all space names together on down days. Investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest given the volatility on display today.
For now, investors can watch for whether space names find support later in today’s trading session, and whether Congress’s SpaceX stock buying starts to look prescient or premature.
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