Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA | MRNA Price Prediction) enters a critical six-day stretch with Q2 earnings due July 31, and an FDA decision on its seasonal flu vaccine expected August 5. Although the stock has already gained 83% in 2026, five consecutive earnings beats and a potential fifth commercial product give investors two major catalysts to watch.
Moderna Has Beaten Earnings 5 Quarters in a Row
Q1 2026 revenue landed at $389M against $236.36M consensus, a 64.58% beat on 263.6% YoY growth. That extends a streak of five straight quarterly beats, with an average one-week post-earnings move of 5.26%. Polymarket traders are pricing an 84% probability Moderna beats again, and the July 31 expiration put/call ratio sits at just 0.12, one of the most call-skewed stocks ahead of earnings.
An August 5 mRNA-1010 Approval Would Give Moderna Its Fifth Product
An August 5 approval for mRNA-1010 (Moderna’s fifth commercial product, if cleared) rebuilds the respiratory franchise heading into the 2026 to 2027 flu season. Management reaffirmed up to 10% revenue growth on a $1.94B 2025 base and a year-end 2026 cash and investments position of $4.5-$5.0B.
Beyond that, Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma data for intismeran, which is being developed alongside Merck’s KEYTRUDA and reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% versus KEYTRUDA alone, are due later this year, along with norovirus and propionic acidemia readouts.
The Bottom Line: Moderna Faces 2 Major Catalysts
Moderna continues to post large GAAP losses, but its Q1 result included an $878 million litigation settlement that did not reflect the underlying business. Management still expects to finish 2026 with $4.5-$5 billion in cash and investments, providing runway for several upcoming clinical readouts.
Friday’s earnings report will test whether revenue continues to recover, while the August 5 FDA decision could add a fifth commercial product ahead of the next flu season. Together, those events could determine whether Moderna’s 2026 rally has more room to run.
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